The 2nd round and how things shape up for Gilas

GAMES TODAY (August 5)

10:30AM Second Round-Group E (SR-E) Qatar vs. Jordan (Mall of Asia Arena)

12:45PM (SR-F) Iran vs. India (Mall of Asia Arena)

3:00PM (SR-E) Chinese-Taipei vs. Hong Kong (Mall of Asia Arena)

5:45PM (SR-F) Kazakhstan vs. China (Mall of Asia Arena)

6:00PM (Consolation Match—13th-15th place) Malaysia vs. Thailand (NAS)

8:30PM (SR-E) PHILIPPINES vs. Japan (Mall of Asia Arena)

10:30PM (SR-F) Korea vs. Bahrain (Mall of Asia Arena)

There are still many out there who don’t understand the second round format of the 27th FIBA-Asia Championship and how the loss by Gilas Pilipinas to Chinese-Taipei last Saturday (August 3) changed the direction in which the Filipinos have to proceed here. Firstly, let’s explain how the teams are grouped together.

The top three qualifiers of each group move on to the second round with their records against those who moved on with them carried over. Hence:

From this bracketing, you will notice that teams earned points for their preliminary round performances: two points for a win and one point for a loss. It’s strange to find defending titlists China at the bottom of the standings in Group F, but they did lose to fellow qualifiers Korea and Iran.

The GA (Group Average) stat to the right indicates—for ranking purposes—the points for/points against the qualified squad. For instance: the Philippines won against fellow qualifier Jordan by six points (+6) but lost to Chinese-Taipei by five points (-5), so their supposed quotient is +1. The number “one” represents the norm, hence the Philippines is 1.01. Bahrain won against fellow qualifier India by two points (+2) but lost to fellow qualifier Kazakhstan by three points (-3), so their quotient is supposed to be -1, hence one below the norm or 0.99, and so on and so forth.

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In the second round of eliminations, the twelve qualified teams will now form two new groups of two: Group E—which will be composed of the six qualifiers from Group A and Group B—and Group F—which is comprised of the six qualifiers from Group C and Group D.

Here, the format will be a “crossover round robin” wherein teams will battle the three qualifiers from the group that also advanced. For example, the Philippines (formerly from Group A) will now take on Japan, Qatar and Hong Kong—the qualifiers from Group B. Bahrain (formerly from Group D) will now take on Korea, China and Iran—the qualifiers from Group C. The top four teams from each second round group will advance to the knockout quarterfinals and will be ranked based on their performance in the second round.

For example, if the Philippines sweeps its Group E assignments over Japan, Qatar and Hong Kong they will be the second ranked team in the group—even if Chinese-Taipei loses a match, because they will have a similar win-loss card and the initial tiebreaker is held by the Taiwanese due to the preliminary round triumph over the host nation. The Philippines would therefore take on the third ranked team coming from Group F. As it stands—and as many pundits have it—Iran, Korea and China will have an easy time against their opponents in the Group F clashes (although Kazakhstan looms as the dark horse). Should Iran, Korea and China sweep their opponents, then a probable quarterfinal match-up for the Filipinos against Group F third placer China is a very distinct possibility.

The bottom two countries from each group will be relegated to the consolation stages.

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That’s how heavy that preliminary loss to Chinese-Taipei was for the Filipinos. Had the Philippines topped Group A and went on to sweep the second round, then a probable tiff with predicted Group F fourth placer Kazakhstan—a team that the Filipinos have traditionally had a measure of success with—would have been favourable.

But that is not the reality.

What makes things intriguing is the way China has played—or how NBA veteran Yi Jianlian has not played.

China is the sixth rank team in Group F heading into their second round encounters against (in order of appearance) Kazakhstan, India and Bahrain. Many experts believe that the Chinese should have an easy time railroading these teams, but reports coming out of the China camp indicate that Yi—who said to be nursing “several” injuries—may sit out the second round games (that’s how confident China apparently is with their chances against the Group D qualifiers) and will be back in harness during the knockout stages. Kazakhstan might just be able to pull the rug from under the reigning Asian champions if they have to rely on their young pivot Wang Zhelin or aging veteran Wang Zhizhi—a late addition to the team. Anton Ponomarev has obviously been holding back during the prelims for Kazakhstan. We all know what this 6’10” forward can do and in fact Reyes even referred to him as “someone who should be playing in the NBA”.

Kazakhstan has also had a major shot in the arm at the point guard position with the clutch performances of naturalized American Jerry Jamar Johnson--especially in that pulsating overtime win against Bahrain. The Kazakhs have enough in their bag of tricks to pull an upset over China if Yi doesn’t play. It will be interesting to see that clash unfold today.

As for Gilas, it is foreseen that the only team that could give them problems in the second round would be undefeated Qatar. Jarvis Hayes has been the most consistent of not only all the NBA players seeing action here, but all the naturalized players as well. Hayes has also bought into the Qatari offense of Head Coach Tom Wiseman—which is very similar to that of the Philippines’. Gilas’ Gabe Norwood had great success shadowing Jordan’s Jimmy Baxter in their first round game, but Hayes is bigger and definitely more skilled. It will take someone with the length and speed of Japeth Aguilar (playing small forward) to do what Norwood did to Baxter against Hayes and Qatar.

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The Philippines takes on Qatar tomorrow (August 6) after having drawn Japan as their opening second round opponent for today.

Strategies will now come to play at this point of the competition. It’s now about who you want to face in the knockout stages. Many aficionados—including some members of Gilas—actually prefer Korea over China. If all runs its course, Korea should be the second ranked team coming out of Group F. That means the Philippines has to be the third ranked team coming out of Group E for that to happen. Or will Kazakhstan push the allegedly Yi-less China to the fourth position? That scenario could put the nationals in a favorable match-up against unbeaten Kazakhstan, or is it indeed favorable?

As I said the last time, the plot thickens. There have been many unexpected results so far, but that’s what makes the FIBA-Asia Championship such a compelling tournament. I mean, who would have thought that Jordan could defeat Iran in Wuhan two years ago? The Jordanians also lost their preliminary round game to the Philippines then—but yet made it all the way to the championship game—after, of course, defeating the Philippines in the semifinals.

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Anything can and will still happen. I guess we’ll just have to bear witness to the unfolding of the second round starting today. See you at the Mall of Asia Arena. I will be doing the venue announcing duties for the matches of Chinese-Taipei vs. Hong Kong and after that Kazakhstan vs. China. The Philippines-Japan tiff follows that.

Today, the real drama begins.

Follow Noel Zarate on Twitter (@NoelZarate) and email sportztackle@yahoo.com