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Cavaliers vs. Warriors: Five things to watch

Cavaliers vs. Warriors: Five things to watch

After what's felt like an unending string of underwhelming matchups on the nationally televised TNT Thursday night slate, we've finally got one worth sinking our teeth into tonight: the Golden State Warriors, leaders of the Western Conference and owners of the league's best record, traveling to Quicken Loans Arena to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers, the NBA's hottest team after winning 17 of their last 19 games.

The last time these two teams played, the Dubs stomped out the LeBron James-less Cavs at Oracle Arena behind the customary backcourt brilliance of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combined for 47 points on 32 shots, a near triple-double from Draymond Green (10 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, three blocks) and, naturally, 14 points off the bench from Justin Holiday. This time around, though, the King's back from his midseason siesta, Cleveland's on an absolute tear and Golden State's in the middle of a six-game Eastern road swing. The playing field should be a bit more level, setting the stage for a marquee matchup between two of the very best teams the NBA has to offer. (And this time, the East-meets-West heavyweight fight featuring the Warriors will actually be on national TV, which is nice.)

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In case all that's not enough to get you amped up, here are five reasons to keep both eyes glued to the possible Finals preview set to tip off Thursday night at the Q:

1. The MVP showdown. In one corner: Curry, who stands fifth in the league in scoring at 23.8 points per game on 48/40/90 shooting splits, sixth in assists at 7.9 dimes per contest, tops in steals at 2.2 a night and third in Player Efficiency Rating at 28.0. In the other: James, who ranks third in scoring (25.7 points per game), eighth in assists (7.3 per contest), third in steals (1.9 a night) and fifth in PER (25.5).

When you add in points created by assists, as logged by the NBA's SportVU player tracking data, James and Curry rank third and fourth in total points directly produced for their teams per game — 43.4 for LeBron, 42.3 for Steph — behind only fellow MVP candidates Russell Westbrook (44.2) and James Harden (44.1). They are the beating hearts and soaring souls of their respective clubs — the Warriors are a whopping 16 points per 100 possessions better with Curry on the floor than off it, while the Cavs are an even more staggering 17.8 points-per-100 better with LeBron's on the court.

They are highlight artists virtually without peer, magicians with the ball whether creating for themselves or their teammates, and two of the NBA's very best at grabbing a game by the scruff of its neck. They do it in different ways — Curry with limitless range and will-o'-the-wisp ball-handling wizardry, James with an unmatched combination of size, speed, vision and skill. The end result, though, remains the same; complete and utter control of a contest. But they can't both carry this particular day. When the rubber meets the road in Cleveland, who'll have that little something extra to push his club past the finish line?

2. Strength vs. strength. No five-man unit in the league that's played more than 250 total minutes together has outperformed the Warriors' starting five. Curry, Thompson, Green, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut have outscored opponents by 19.6 points per 100 possessions, scorching the nets on offense and clamping down on defense to propel Steve Kerr's club to a league-best 44-10 record, including a 33-3 mark when this starting five suits up in full.

A funny thing happens, though, if you nudge that filter down by just eight total minutes:

That's right. Since David Griffin's January deals to import new starting center Timofey Mozgov and new starting shooting guard J.R. Smith, and since James came back from his two-week stint on the sidelines to heal his barking body, the Cavaliers have had, by far, the best starting five in the NBA, going 16-1 in games where that lineup's been on the floor at tipoff. (The lone loss: the pre-All-Star break getaway game against the Chicago Bulls, in which Derrick Rose had perhaps his finest game of the season.)

Timofey Mozgov and J.R. Smith have helped transform the Cavaliers. (David Liam Kyle/NBAE/Getty Images)
Timofey Mozgov and J.R. Smith have helped transform the Cavaliers. (David Liam Kyle/NBAE/Getty Images)

James, Mozgov, Smith, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are incinerating opposing defenses to the tune of 118.6 points scored per 100 possessions. On top of that, they're also benefiting from Mozgov's paint-clogging presence, James' improved activity level and a more conservative approach to controlling pick-and-rolls, utterly snuffing out opposing offenses by allowing just 92.7 points-per-100.

Basically, since mid-January, Cleveland's new starting five have been scoring at a rate unmatched by any team over the course of a full season in NBA.com's records and defending at a clip unseen since the '03-'04 Spurs and Pistons. That's a pretty decent combination, and it puts the Warriors in the uncommon position of entering a game without knowing for sure that they've got the best team on the floor.

3. Full squads (or just about). Any concerns we might have had about Curry's status heading into this tilt after missing Tuesday's loss to the Indiana Pacers with right foot and ankle soreness were assuaged Tuesday, when he returned to hang 32 points on the Washington Wizards in 34 minutes of playing time, making 11 of his 18 shots while dishing eight dimes without a turnover in a 114-107 win. While Kerr will look to get them some rest in the days ahead, Bogut and key reserve swingman Andre Iguodala are both expected to be good to go on Thursday, according to Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group.

Shawn Marion (strained left hip) is the only notable name who won't be participating on Thursday night, and his role's been minimized quite a bit since the additions of Smith and Iman Shumpert on the wing, as he's averaged just 10.1 minutes per game over his past 10 appearances. We'll be seeing these two clubs at as close to full strength as possible on Thursday, giving us as good a chance as we're going to get of seeing the maximum amount of awesome basketball.

Kevin Love's coming off a career-high eight 3-pointers vs. Detroit. (Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports)
Kevin Love's coming off a career-high eight 3-pointers vs. Detroit. (Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports)

4. Sliding doors. Hey, remember when Kevin-for-Klay was the trade rumor everyone was talking about? Man, this summer sure feels like a long time ago, huh? Instead, talks between the Warriors' braintrust and the Minnesota Timberwolves broke off, leading to Flip Saunders eventually sending Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for a package headlined by 2014 No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins.

Since then, Klay has blown up. He set a new NBA record for points in a quarter, earned his first All-Star berth and eventually received a starting nod for the Western Conference squad. He's averaging a career-high 22.3 points per game, ninth-best in the league, on career-best 47/44/87 shooting splits; he's now a legitimate, unquestioned NBA star.

Love, on the other hand, has seen his wattage dimmed by dint of his proximity to James and Irving, his struggles to adjust from being the No. 1 option in Minnesota to the No. 3 option in Cleveland, and some weird static in his public relationship with both his coach and the top gun. His per-game and per-minute numbers are down, his shooting percentages are down, his statistical profile and eye-test performance have flagged from All-NBA-caliber to not-quite-All-Star-level; suddenly, a deal that this summer looked to many like a no-brainer on which Golden State should've pulled the trigger without a second thought has become perhaps the best thing that never happened to the Warriors.

Will Love — fresh off a 24-point, nine-rebound performance in Cleveland's Tuesday win over the Detroit Pistons — have an extra spring in his step on Thursday, aiming to give Golden State's brass an eyeful of what they missed out on? Will Thompson, two games removed from hanging 39 on the Pacers in Curry's absence, once again explode with the kind of performance that announces his arrival as one of the NBA's emerging superstars? Or will both shooters sputter rather than sparkle, making us think more about just how rad it is that Wiggins now finds himself in Minneapolis under the tutelage of Kevin Garnett?

5. Hold the line. With Curry and Thompson leading the way, the Warriors have been one of the league's most effective teams from beyond the arc, leading the league in 3-point shooting accuracy (38.9 percent) while ranking third in the NBA in long-range attempts per game (27.1) and generating a higher share of their points from beyond the arc than all but three NBA clubs (Houston, Portland, Atlanta).

Golden State's long-distance proficiency would seem to be bad news for a Cavs club that ranks 20th among 30 NBA teams in 3-point attempts allowed per game over the course of the full season. But as NBA.com's John Schuhmann notes, Cleveland's been significantly stingier at defending the arc since Jan. 13, their first game with Mozgov, Smith and a returned LeBron, allowing slightly fewer 3-point attempts per game (22.8 pre-Jan. 13, 22.4 post) but doing a much better job of defending them, holdng opponents to just 31.9 percent shooting from 3, down from 35.4 percent earlier in the season.

If Cleveland's perimeter defenders can stay at home on Curry and Thompson enough to keep them from exploding and the rest of the Cavs can contest closely enough to prevent the likes of Green, Barnes and Iguodala from drilling deep shots, David Blatt's club stands a good chance of running its home winning streak to 11 straight. If they can't, though, the Warriors figure to improve to 18-3 against Eastern Conference competition.

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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don't Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at devine@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!

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