Suzuki Cup semis preview: why Thailand is beatable
Image copyright Bob Guerrero.
On Saturday the Philippine Azkals take on Thailand in the first game of a two-legged AFF Suzuki Cup semifinal in Rizal Memorial. The odds are stacked against the home team.
The Philippines has not defeated Thailand in over four decades. Our last two meetings were losses, 2-1 in the Suzuki Cup group stage in 2012 and the 3-0 defeat in Nakhon Ratchasima on November 9.
Thailand has not tasted a Suzuki Cup victory in a while but their three titles are second only to Singapore’s four championships. The War Elephants have finished runners-up in three of the last four editions of this tournament.
“I can’t believe how Thailand doesn’t win this every time,” remarked one Fox Sports pundit (or words to that effect.)
Thai football has the discipline of Germany, the imagination and skill of Brazil, the selflessness and teamwork of Spain and the energy and fitness of Korea. No question they are the favorites to win not only the semifinals over two legs, but also the whole shebang.
I kinda get the impression that the rest of ASEAN views Thailand in football the way they view us in hoops.
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Kiatisuk Senamuang’s team is loaded with offensive weapons, especially the wily Chanathip Songkrasin, a fiendishly talented central midfielder with dribbling moves and passing vision as well. He can feed Kirati Keouwsombut or Adisak Kraison up top. Kirati is deceptively quick for a stocky guy, and Adisak came in for Kirati in the group stage game against Malaysia and scored two fine goals in a 3-2 come-from-behind win.
Kroekrit Thaweekarn is a winger who usually operates from the left flank and has speed to burn. Prakit Deeprom is a great free kick taker who can make us pay for fouls outside the box. Don’t forget their Swiss-born midfielder Charyl Chapuis, who has fit right into the Thai system.
Yes, Thailand will be the favorites, FIFA rankings notwithstanding. But are they invincible? Several factors would indicate that the Azkals could pull off an upset.
Defense. Yes Thailand has all sorts of arrows in the quiver. But in defense, they have been far from brilliant.
In the win against Malaysia, both goals by the Harimau Malaya were a bit soft, especially Safiq Rahim’s, where the former Malaysian captain skated into the box unperturbed and knocked the ball past Thawin Thamsatchanan with ease.
It was a similar story in Thailand’s 2-0 group-stage ending win over Myanmar. Reserve keeper Chanin Sae-Eae had to produce plenty of stops to keep the clean sheet, as the defense allowed lots of chances from Kyaw Ko Ko and company.
Thailand are sort of a team with a turbocharged V8 under the hood but drum brakes on all four corners. Artit Daosawang, Anucha Kitpongsritada, Tanaboon Kesarat are all solid, experienced players but as a unit they have not been the shut-down crew that champion teams rely on.
If the Azkals can test this vulnerable defense and hang up some goals, it’s anybody’s game.
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The Venue. The game is being played on the artificial turf of Rizal Memorial. This is a good thing, because the Azkals will know its idiosyncrasies better than Thailand, who I presume mostly play on grass.
Mark Hartmann tells me that the ball behaves very differently on the Rizal turf especially when it’s wet. And hey look! A storm is coming!
There is more weirdness in Rizal Memorial. The lights on top of the grandstand are very low, and have been the bane of many a goalkeeper and target forward in the past.
Hopefully we can use all of these little edges to our advantage.
Physicality. I remember running into Chieffy Caligdong in the parking lot just before the Azkals Christmas party in 2012 after the Suzuki Cup. Chieffy was walking with a limp courtesy of a heavy challenge from Lion Darren Bennett during the 1-0 aggregate semifinal loss.
I remember how Singapore was quite rough in that semifinal series. Football, like, um, love, is a contact sport, and the Singaporeans very much reminded us of that on the way to the title.
These Azkals are usually quite well-behaved on the pitch. I am not saying that they should cross the line into out-and-out thuggery on Saturday, but maybe they should walk right up to the very edge of it and perhaps wave a foot over it every now and then.
I’m talking hard but fair shoulder-to-shoulders, meaty duty fouls, full-blooded lunges at 50-50 balls, and perhaps a little smack talk here and there. Even the occasional deserved yellow card to keep Thailand watching their back. Jason De Jong would come in handy in a game like this.
I have no official stats on this but judging from what I see on TV I think that on average we are slightly taller than the Thais on average.
We need to derail and disrupt this Thai squad and knock them off their rhythm and off their game. A touch here and there might help.
The underdog tag. For this series we are no longer the up-and-coming power of ASEAN. Once again we are the big underdogs against the established might of Thailand. In short, we have nothing to lose. That could be a liberating factor that just might give us the lift to win the game.
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The first game at home. The organizers have given the better-seeded team the right to have the home game as the second game. So some might see game one in Manila as a disadvantage. But we can turn that around.
Game one on our ground allows us to have the crowd in our favor early. That might mean if we seize the initiative, get an early lead, have some momentum, then we set up a difficult second leg in Bangkok.
We need look no further than the final in 2012, when Singapore stunned the War Elephants 3-1 in the first leg in Jalan Besar, then held on for the 3-2 aggregate win by allowing only one Thai goal in the return leg in Rajamangala.
This is like poker, where we are “under the gun,” or first to act, which is considered worse position than “on the button,” (dealer button) where everyone has acted and thus more information is known. But we can set the tone at home early, but a big crowd is, of course, going to help a lot.
In spite of all this, Thailand will still have the favor of the bookmakers and the neutral analysts. But we do have a fair shot at progressing. It will now be up to the players to deliver the goods.
PROJECTED STARTING XI
Reichelt
PYounghusband
Steuble Ott Lucena Bahadoran
Sato Gier Aguinaldo Rota
Deyto
Follow Bob on Twitter @PassionateFanPH.
