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NCAA Final Four: Not for the faint of heart

(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)

The NCAA has had a rich history of fierce hardcourt battles in its 90 years of existence.  But most observers following Season 90 agree that this year could easily be the most balanced competition in NCAA men’s basketball in the last ten seasons.  A look at the team standings at the end of the elims revealed that the top four teams are not far apart from each other in terms of their win-loss cards.

For the ninth straight year, defending four-peat champions San Beda Red Lions finished on top of the standings after the elims with a 14-5 record.  At second spot is first-time semis qualifier Arellano University with a 13-6 card.   At third with a similar 13-6 grade is host Jose Rizal University, while University of Perpetual Help completes the semis cast with a 12-7 mark.  San Beda and Arellano enjoy a twice-to-beat incentive.

The Red Lions will tangle with the Altas for the third straight year in the semis on Wednesday at 2PM at the Mall of Asia Arena, followed by the duel between the Chiefs and Heavy Bombers at 4PM.

What’s interesting about this year’s Final Four is that all four teams are believed to be very evenly matched.  Save for the twice-to-beat edge of San Beda and Arellano, there is no clear advantage for any team in this year’s semis match-ups.

San Beda versus Perpetual Help

The Lions and Altas split their encounters this season.  In the first round, San Beda narrowly escaped UPHSD with a 77-75 squeaker.  In the second round, the Altas finally scored one over the Lions since 2005 via a close 76-75 decision as forward Harold Arboleda sank two of three free throws with less than a second left in playtime.

On his third year as head coach of the Altas, Aric Del Rosario aims to bring back the Las Pinas-based school to the NCAA Finals since its last trip there in 2004.  The veteran hoops guru somehow knows how to beat the five-peat seeking Red Lions if we look at their recent matches.

San Beda is known for its defense on the half court, limiting opponents to less than 66 ppg, a league-best.  But Perpetual Help has some of the best talents in the NCAA today headed by leading MVP candidate Earl Thompson (17.35 ppg, 11.35 rpg, 5.76 apg), leading scorer Juneric Baloria (21 ppg) and the sweet-shooting Arboleda (13.5 ppg).  UPHSD is the best three-point shooting squad this season with an average of 7.94 triples per outing, on a league-best 24.13% shooting clip.

(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)
(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)

The beauty of the Altas’ offense is that the players are given the green light to create for themselves.  Del Rosario hardly controls his wards and gives them full confidence in their decision-making.  This method works wonders for the team, which is teeming with talent.  Other than the deadly trio of Thompson-Baloria-Arboleda, also giving major contributions are Justine Alano (11.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.13 bpg), three-point specialist Gabriel Dagangon, Joel Jolangcob and Kevin Oliveira.  This team also loves to run and score in transition.  Curiously, transition defense is a major weakness of the Red Lions.

But when San Beda pounced on a hapless Arellano side last Friday with an emphatic 97-69 win, it became apparent that the Red Lions are still hungry for more titles in the NCAA.  Before this triumph, they went on a rare three-game skid, stirring talks about internal problems in the team.  The Lions have not lost three in a row since 2005.

After those three losses to UPHSD, JRU and Arellano, the Red Lions went on a team building outing to Laguna and returned to the NCAA looking as fearsome as ever.  And just when most say that San Beda is purely a defensive team, it drops 97 points on second-placer Arellano.  It also leads the league in rebounding with 46.41 rpg.

However, the challenge for the Lions is how to keep their hunger and be consistent on the floor.  Expect them to come out tough defensively.  The key is of course to limit the production of Baloria, Thompson and Arboleda.  But more importantly, to stymie the Altas’ transition game.  The Lions also need more composure in offense to cut down on their turnovers.

If the Lions succeed in limiting the Altas to less than 70 markers, they might just get a crack at that record-tying five peat.  Head coach Boyet Fernandez hopes to claim his back-to-back titles as a college coach before his return to the pros.

Arellano versus Jose Rizal

Classic offense versus defense battle.  The Chiefs are known for their high-scoring game.  They are by far the best scoring team in the league with a whopping 85.5 ppg.  First-year coach Jerry Codinera has a myriad of gunners in his roster.  Five Chiefs average in twin digits namely American recruit Dioncee Holts (12.88ppg), spitfire Jiovani Jalalon (12.87ppg), pro-bound John Pinto (12.38ppg), former NCAA juniors scoring record-holder Keith Agovida (11.69ppg) and three-point artist Levi Hernandez (10.20ppg).  They also have a deep bench, which Codinera uses very well to sustain their up-tempo game.

(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)
(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)

Veteran center Prince Caperal can explode anytime with his excellent perimeter shooting, while Zach Nicholls, Ice Ciriacruz, Ralph Salcedo and Donald Gumaru combine for about 17 points per game.  They are also the best in transition offense, constantly pushing the ball at a high speed pace.

But the Chiefs’ waterloo is their defense.  They are the worse in the league, allowing opponents 82.19 ppg.
JRU prides itself in defense.  Coach Vergel Meneses’ boys are the fourth best defensive unit in the league, allowing foes just 70.8 ppg.  The Heavy Bombers are relentless in defense.  They will pour in the pressure even from the backcourt.  And they work like dogs, very unforgiving and unswerving.

Offensively, the Bombers can bombard their opponents.  They do have some heavy snipers from long-range, especially Philip Paniamogan, who fires 18.44 ppg and 38% shooting from beyond the arc.  But there are others.  Jaycee Asuncion and Bernabe Teodoro have been revelations this season with their ability to shoot from long range.  The two combine for an impressive 18 markers per outing.  Workhorse Michael Mabulac takes care of the interior for JRU, posting huge numbers of 11.19 ppg and 8.75 rpg.  And, the Bombers have a defensive specialist in 6’7” center from Ghana Abdul Wahab Abdul Razak, who churns in decent norms of 7.81 ppg, 11.38 rpg and 1.31 bpg.

(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)
(Adrian Bautista/NPPA IMAGES)

But the Bombers make the second most errors in the league with 20.19 turnovers per game.

If the Chiefs manage to step on the gas and turn the match into a shootout, they could be headed for a finals appearance and exceed their goal of just barging into the semis for the first time since joining the league in 2009.

We can expect both semis encounters to be tight from the get-go.  This Final Four Wednesday in the NCAA will be explosive and dramatic.  It’s not for the fainted-heart.