UAAP Final Four Preview: It’s a wide open race

This is going to be one heckuva semis series in the UAAP, probably the best in years. Come to think of it, the entire season has been amazing, oozing with color and drama. What a way to cap it by having two near-perfect match-ups.

But allow me first to congratulate the Ateneo Blue Eagles for ruling the league for five straight years. Take a bow, Blue Eagles. Your feat is difficult to duplicate.

The coming Final Four features the hottest three teams in the UAAP, as the De La Salle Green Archers swept the second round, the National University Bulldogs claiming the top spot because of their own incredible win streak, and the University of Sto. Tomas Growling Tigers recovering from a blow-hot blow-cold season and now turning into the championship-caliber team they were in 2012. The other semi-finalists, first round topnotchers Far Eastern University Tamaraws, struggled in the second round but are still a major contender for this year’s plum.

Let’s review the match-ups:

No. 1 NU versus No. 4 UST (NU has twice-to-beat advantage)

The Bulldogs swept the Tigers in two meetings this season – 71-67 on July 10, and 75-61 on August 24. But it was in that first meeting that UST chief gunner Jeric Teng injured his shoulder after being hit from behind by NU’s Jeoffrey Javillonar in a rebound play. Teng missed the entire second half and several games after that obviously caused the Tigers to struggle in the tournament.

The Teng Factor. In the second meeting, Teng saw action for only ten minutes and finished with just two points. But he is now back and almost in top form.

The Tigers are twice as deadly with Teng around. He is an immediate threat offensively that defenses are normally so focused on stopping him. This allows the others to shine. In yesterday’s knockout match that saw UST ending Ateneo’s UAAP dynasty, Teng came out smoking with 17 points, including two-out-of-four sniping from beyond the arc, and nine rebounds. His presence also allowed Karim Abdul to dominate the paint with 25 points, nine boards and five blocks. Teng will want nothing more than to get back at the Bulldogs, and especially Javillonar, whom he thought deliberately hit him during that first encounter this season.

The Parks factor. The Bulldogs main weapon will always be the prolific Bobby Ray Parks. He ranks third in the league in scoring with 18.3 markers, on top of 8.4 boards, 3.8 assists and 1.1 steals and blocks per outing. Parks, whose illustrious father passed away early this year, has vowed to give NU a UAAP title before he turns pro. There is no better chance to fulfill that vow than this season.

Solid Five. Of course, the other Tigers cannot be ignored as well. UST is a scoring machine when their guns are well-calibrated. Aljon Mariano has blossomed to become a dangerous scorer with the ability to connect from long distance and also to attack the hoop with a variety of moves. Kevin Ferrer is another explosive player, who creates mismatches with his size advantage over other wing players. Clark Bautista is one of the best three-point artists in the league. His two triples in the payoff period against the Blue Eagles doused cold water on the latter’s fierce rally late in the game. And Eduardo Daquioag can also hurt with his cat-quick penetrations and timely jumpers.

ALSO READ: A closer look at how UST finished off Ateneo

Then of course, there’s Abdul. He has certainly lifted his game several notches from last year. Against Ateneo in the rubber match, the Cameroonian center displayed his ability to score in many different ways – posting up, penetrating from the elbow, pulling up with short stabs, finishing in transition. He will be a major key in the match-up versus NU.

Bench Depth. But the Achilles heel of the Tigers is their bench. Six players are on the floor over 24 minutes a game – Abdul (33), Ferrer (30.4), Mariano (29.7), Bautista (28.5), Teng (27.4) and Daquioag (24.4). Kim Lo follows at 17.6 minutes, then point guard Sheak Sheriff at 12.5 minutes. NU will have the edge in bench depth.

NU’s bench will play a major role in the semis. How Javillonar, Joshua Alolino, Dennice Villamor, Jeth Rosario, Robin Rono, and even Glenn Khobuntin and Jay-jay Alejandro will perform in the semis can be the x-factor versus the Tigers.

Centers of Attraction. The match-up between Abdul and NU’s Emmanuel Mbe is certainly something to watch. Both Cameroonians are imposing figures inside the court. Both are excellent rebounders and post defenders. Abdul’s norms are impressive, with 16.4 ppg, 12.1 rpg and two blocks per game. Mbe’s are not far behind – 14.9 ppg and 12.1 rpg. Abdul will have the edge in offense as he offers more moves in the post. But doing those moves against Mbe will be easier said than done.

Chess Match. The coaching battle will be another interesting sideshow. NU’s Eric Altamirano is a more controlled tactician who wants to direct traffic from the bench even when he applies the Dribble Drive Motion system. UST’s Pido Jarencio allows his boys more leeway on the floor but uses more deliberate set offenses. It sounds crazy but that’s why it’s interesting. Altamirano, a champion coach in the pros, hopes to bag his first collegiate title as a head coach this year. On the other hand, Jarencio is chasing his second UAAP championship as UST’s mentor this season.

Playoff Experience. Being on top is something new for the Bulldogs. How they are mentally prepared for such a grinding series is anybody’s guess. In contrast, the Tigers have had several trips to the finals in recent years, including last season. Several of their key players, including the starters, are used to the pressure of big games. But the twice-to-beat edge of the Bulldogs is huge.

It will be a fierce battle but my guess is NU will barge into the finals after two games.

DLSU versus FEU (virtual Best-of-Three for the Finals)

The FEU-La Salle contest will be just as heart pounding as the other match-up. They split their games this season, with the first round going to the Tams (83-79 in OT) and the second to the Green Archers (75-66). La Salle is the hottest team right now, winning seven straight games. FEU also had a seven-game win streak in the first round. Both teams collide on Saturday to decide who gets the twice-to-beat incentive in the semis.

In the first encounter, the Archers blew a comfortable double digit lead in the last five minutes of play and the lost the game to the Tamaraws. FEU went on to sweep the first round. Jeron Teng and Terrence Romeo held a showdown as both fired 25 points.

ALSO READ: DLSU's Tower of Strength helps sink UST

The second round saw a rejuvenated DLSU side. It swept all competition in the second phase, including a vengeful 75-66 triumph over the Tams. In this second meeting, for a moment it looked like history would repeat itself, as FEU once again threatened to pull the rug from under the Archers in the last few minutes. But La Salle learned its lessons well and regrouped in end game to sustain the win. Rookie Jason Perkins shone brightest for La Salle as he finished with 18 points and 13 rebounds. Romeo was limited to just 12 points by the Archers. Instead, workhorses Roger Pogoy and Mark Belo combined for 32 markers and 17 boards for the Tams.

Teng-Vosotros versus Romeo-Garcia. This will be a display of firepower from the deadly tandems of both squads. Top MVP contender Romeo heads the league in scoring with 22.2 ppg. Garcia has not been his best this season but the former UAAP MVP saves the best for last. When these two brilliant guards play beautiful music together, the Tams are tough to crack, like in the first round. The problem is that it’s not always that way. Teng is No. 7 in the league in scoring (tied with UP’s Joseph Marata) with 14.4 ppg, while teammate Almond Vosotros is No. 10 with 14.2 ppg. Teng’s specialty is using his power to barrel through the defense with forceful penetrations, while Vosotros is one of the league’s best outside shooters.

Size Advantage. La Salle will have the clear advantage in the post with Jason Perkins, Arnold Van Opstal and Norbert Torres, arguably the best frontline line-up in the field. It’s hard to ignore their numbers – Perkins (12.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg), AVO (9.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.9 bpg), and Torres (7.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg). The Archers will surely use this advantage to the hilt to apply a balanced attack versus FEU. Expect La Salle to keep hitting its big men inside and make FEU’s shallow frontline work doubly hard. The Tams will be relying on the undersized Belo and Pogoy, and imports Anthony Hargrove and Christian Sentcheu, none of whom are real post threats. FEU will however rely on their hard work and defensive skills to try and offset La Salle’s size advantage.

Bench Depth. La Salle has one of the deepest benches this season. Several Archers have had big games throughout the season to support Teng, Vosotros, Perkins and Van Opstal. LA Revilla and Thomas Torres have been steady at the point guard position. Even Kib Montalbo has shown signs of brilliance in some games. They also have a good number of shooters that have made a good account of themselves in some games, like Gab Reyes, Luigi Dela Paz and Matt Salem. Don’t forget they still have Jarelan Tampus, a veteran scorer who can erupt anytime during a crucial game.

Coaching Battle. First-time UAAP head coach Juno Sauler has done a stellar job for DLSU in the second round. The timing is perfect for the Green Archers as they seem to be peaking at the right time. But Nash Racela has been in countless battles and his coaching prowess shines brightest during crunch time. Right now, it’s hard to tell what Racela has in mind. Will he deviate from the usual “give it to Terrence” attack to catch La Salle by surprise? Will he come up with new defensive strategies against the talent-laden Archers? Your guess is as good as mine but he will surely come up with something.

The key for La Salle is who will take the lead during the crucial moments. Will it be Teng, Vosotros, or the post players? Revilla will be another crucial piece of the puzzle. His leadership will be needed most in the semis.

The key for FEU is how they will play together. Will Romeo take matters in his own hands again? Will Garcia step up to the plate and bring back his MVP game?

The Archers seem to have more to offer in this match-up but you can never question the heart of the Tamaraws.

I think La Salle will survive FEU after they go the distance.