2015 Shuffle Up: Antonio Brown, yellow jersey
With only seven months until draft season kicks in, we better get some rankings out to the people. In this edition, we'll tackle the wide receivers. (Don't tackle too hard, those zebras sure are trigger-happy.)
I'll be shuffling all the major positions out the door, one at a time, just to give us something to talk about. I'm not in any way married to these 2015 ranks or opinions; surely I'll forget many (most) of them by the time pitchers and catchers report, if not sooner. But lists are fun, rankings are fun.
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A few rules: players at the same price are considered even; the dollar values are merely comparison tools and are arrived at unscientifically; and I refuse to rank rookies before the NFL draft. We have to draw the line somewhere.
Marinate on the wideout prices through the overnight. I'll add commentary Wednesday, and maybe move a few things around.
$33 Antonio Brown
$32 Demaryius Thomas
$31 Dez Bryant
$30 Jordy Nelson
$29 A.J. Green
$29 Odell Beckham Jr.
$28 Calvin Johnson
$27 Julio Jones
$26 Mike Evans
$25 Randall Cobb
$24 Alshon Jeffery
$23 T.Y. Hilton
$23 Brandon Marshall
$22 Kelvin Benjamin
Look how much fun the top of the receiver board is. There's something for everybody. Young players, familiar veterans, taller wideouts, smaller wideouts. You're going to want some of these guys. You'll be spending premium picks and dollars on them.
You can rank Beckham anywhere you want and I won't really argue with you. He's proven to be an uncoverable freak, and we've seen what his theoretical upside is - top receiver in fantasy. That's what he became over the final two months of 2014. Ultimately I dinged him every so slightly because he's only done it once, and he's tied to an ordinary quarterback. The expected return of Victor Cruz doesn't bother me for Beckham, though, and the presence of Rueben Randle - pshaw.
Jones and Johnson had to come down a little bit in price given their injury histories. That said, they could easily make someone very happy in the second round of a 2015 draft.
Here's a list of all of Hilton's touchdowns by length, covering his three-year career: 75 (punt return), 73, 73, 70, 61, 58, 43, 42, 40, 36, 33, 31, 29, 28, 14, 10, 9, 8, 3, 1. At least the two shortest scores came this year (and both after Thanksgiving); long touchdowns will come and go, but the ability to score from short distances is critical for any big-ticket wideout. Hilton saw just three inside-10 targets in his first two years, and nothing at the goal. This year those numbers crept to six and two (with the two scores). Sure, a 5-foot-9, 178-pound player isn't ideally suited for the design teams favor around the stripe, but there's always a place for lateral agility, a guy who can get open.
$21 Josh Gordon
$21 Jeremy Maclin
$21 Emmanuel Sanders
$20 DeSean Jackson
$19 Mike Wallace
$19 Keenan Allen
$18 Sammy Watkins
$18 DeAndre Hopkins
$18 Golden Tate
$17 Torrey Smith
$16 Jordan Matthews
$15 Michael Floyd
$15 Eric Decker
$15 Julian Edelman
$14 Martavis Bryant
$13 Vincent Jackson
$13 Roddy White
$13 Andre Johnson
$12 Kenny Stills
$11 Donte Moncrief
$11 Victor Cruz
$11 Percy Harvin
$11 Brandon Cooks
$10 Brandon LaFell
$10 Larry Fitzgerald
Jackson's year in Washington flew a little under the radar. Despite the team's rotating and mediocre play at quarterback, Jackson led all league qualifiers in yards per target and yards per catch. He snagged 13 passes of 40 yards or more; no one else had more than eight. And he did all of this on a piddly 95 targets, just 17.6 percent of Washington's passing game. Start pumping the ball Jackson's way, Jay Gruden. Find more ways to use your most dynamic weapon.
Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper both saw more red-zone targets than Jeremy Maclin. One of those is fine, one of those is a joke . . . We're used to Andre Johnson not scoring much, but it's interesting to note he had the highest market share inside the red zone last year (his targets against his team's overall targets) and still scored just three times. Some other players with heavy share of red-zone targets but low touchdown counts: Cecil Shorts, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, and Ruby Tuesday of course. On the flip side, here are some names who scored plenty despite ordinary red-zone market share: Jeremy Maclin, Emmy Sanders, Martavis Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Floyd . . . I originally had Cooks over Stills, then I thought of who would scare me more if I were an opposing defensive coordinator. Flip-flop. I'd make the gap larger if I knew the Saints were 100 percent on board.
$9 Jarvis Landry
$9 Kendall Wright
$8 Allen Robinson
$8 Michael Crabtree
$8 Anquan Boldin
$7 John Brown
$7 Davante Adams
$7 Pierre Garcon
$7 Justin Blackmon
$7 Cecil Shorts
$7 Charles Johnson
$7 Steve Smith Sr.
$6 Cody Latimer
$6 Justin Hunter
$6 Marqise Lee
$6 Robert Woods
$6 Terrance Williams
Two things I want from all of my fantasy commodities, in any sport: talent, and an obsessive desire to be great. With that in mind, I'm still willing to chase Smith Sr. and Boldin a little bit next year, perfect WR4 (or maybe even WR5) types. If they add something to my roster, prove playable regularly, great. If they finally hit that cliff season, no big deal, the price was probably right. It's a shame you can't take the internal motor with these guys and give it to someone with insane natural gifts and a laissez-faire attitude - looking at you, Josh Gordon . . . I expect Randall Cobb will return to the Pack, so I'm not getting frisky for any of Green Bay's support receivers just yet . . . Terrance Williams started off as one of those low-volume touchdown flukes, and then things really fell apart when Jason Witten woke up and Cole Beasley emerged. I'm not confident he'll ever be a Top 30 fantasy receiver so long as Bryant is in town.
$5 Brian Quick
$5 Cordarrelle Patterson
$5 Marques Colston
$5 Stedman Bailey
$5 Rueben Randle
$5 Paul Richardson
$5 Doug Baldwin
$4 Mohamed Sanu
$4 Dwayne Bowe
$4 Marquess Wilson
$4 Andrew Hawkins
$4 Jermaine Kearse
$3 Marvin Jones
$3 Andre Holmes
$3 Kenny Britt
$3 Greg Jennings
$3 Allen Hurns
$3 Harry Douglas
$3 Malcom Floyd
$2 Markus Wheaton
$2 Reggie Wayne
$2 James Jones
$2 Hakeem Nicks
$2 Taylor Gabriel
$2 Jarius Wright
Patterson's skills remain as raw as ever, but a major thumbs down to the job Norv Turner did with Patterson. Do the Vikings remember what Patterson did in St. Louis on opening day, with three crummy handoffs? It's frustrating to see talent wasted like this. Minnesota has some interesting talent elsewhere at the position (Charles was in charge late in the year), but that doesn't excuse Turner for his mess . . . Everyone knows the Chiefs wideouts didn't score any touchdowns, but they were a joke everywhere on the field. The KC wideouts were also last in catches (129) and yards (1,588), trailing the Rams by 32 grabs and 504 yards. That's not easy to do. And this freaking team was in playoff contention in Week 17 . . . Douglas is a between-the-20s hero, but he doesn't break enough long catches and he doesn't do much in the red area. The last two years: 136 catches, 206 targets, four piddly touchdowns. He didn't even make it to 11 yards a grab last season. And he has a mere eight scores on 419 career targets (258 receptions). Feel free to acquire him when Jones or White gets hurt next year, and then ship him in trade before everyone remembers how ordinary Douglas is. There's no upside worth chasing here . . . I panned Colston before the year and he looked like toast midway through 2014, but quietly he scored four times in his last six games and he also pushed his YPC back up to 15.3. Maybe he'll be an Ibanez All-Star next summer. I'll revisit his case in a few months.
$1 Tavon Austin
$1 Riley Cooper
$1 Nate Washington
$1 Jeff Janis
$0 Stevie Johnson
$0 Rod Streater
$0 Eddie Royal
$0 Bruce Ellington
$0 Andre Roberts
$0 Nick Toon
$0 Brian Hartline
$0 Cole Beasley
$0 Jeremy Kerley
$0 Brice Butler
$0 Aaron Dobson
$0 Josh Huff
$0 Albert Wilson
$0 Wes Welker
$0 Jarrett Boykin
$0 Kamar Aiken
