First Down: McCoy's fantasy potential in Buffalo a tad bit 'Shady'
As the summer heats up, Yahoo's resident Noisemaker will offer his hot takes on specific players, trends and strategies much discussed in Fantasyland. Naturally, whatever he forecasts, the opposite is bound to occur. Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments section below.
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The Buzz: Buffalo RBs coach Anthony Lynn, supporting Rex Ryan's "we'll run it 50 times" declaration from earlier this spring, told the Buffalo News he wants LeSean McCoy to lead the league in carries. Over the past two seasons, the three-time Pro Bowl selection set the NFL carries pace toting the rock an exhaustive 626 times for former employer Philadelphia. Based on his situation, many believe he's a strong candidate to extend the streak.
Reasons why a January plunge in Lake Erie is more appealing than owning McCoy:
East-West Happy Feet. McCoy experienced a style transformation last fall. He displayed poorer vision, missed cut-back lanes, lacked aggressiveness and resembled more late-career Chris Johnson than the rush king from 2013. Specifically on designed stretch plays, he tried, very unsuccessfully, to hit the home run instead of taking what the defense gave him. As a result, he was dragged down a humiliating number of times at or behind the line. Just over 33 percent of his carries went for 1-yard or less. Yikes. Equally disgusting, he ranked at or near the bottom in several advanced metrics according to Pro Football Focus including overall performance (-9.3, RB55), elusive rating (28.9, RB31), yards after contact percentage (48.9, RB41) and yards per route run (0.43, RB42). His absent involvement as a receiver, an area he historically thrived in, was also puzzling. Bad habits are hard to break and if last year's timidity continues, McCoy may lead the league in negative plays.
Greg Roman. The offensive coordinator's run-heavy scheme in San Fran offers encouragement for McCoy. However, RBs within his system were largely forgotten in the pass game. And it wasn't like he coached stone-handed backs. During his four-year tenure by the Bay, his rushers ranked outside the league's top-25 in total receptions every year, grabbing an insignificant 47.3 catches per year. Frank Gore's single season high over that stretch was 28 (for 234 yards) in 2012. Banking on McCoy catching 30 or more passes this season would be an exercise in futility. In Roman's offense he'll be more high-end RB2 than sure-fire RB1, especially in PPR settings.
Suspect Offensive Line. When I talked to Coach Ryan about the Bills' offseason plans in late February, he said addressing the offensive line was a top priority, understandably so. Last year, Buffalo ranked dead last in run-blocking per PFF. No surprise, 30 percent of the team's RB carries went for 1, zero or negative yards. The additions of Richie Incognito and third-round pick John Miller were the first steps in the rebuilding process, but this is a unit that must mesh quickly to create suitable lanes for McCoy. Recall last season, Shady ran behind the No. 1 ranked offensive line in run-blocking according to PFF.
Dubious Pass Game. Matt Cassel, E.J. Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Tuel – it's a QB clown car in Buffalo. Oh how Bills fans yearn for Jim Kelly ... or Doug Flutie. Cassel has shown competency at previous stops in New England, KC and Minnesota, but he surrendered the starting gig to Teddy Bridgewater after suffering a broken foot Week 3 against New Orleans last year. Based on his 202-1-4 line the previous week against the Patriots his days were numbered anyways. The 10-year vet is the odds on favorite to win the starting job. Assuming he nails down the gig, he should be more than a game manager. With Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Robert Woods and Charles Clay on roster, the shelf is stocked. Still, as Cassel's 58.9 career completion percentage would indicate, he would occasionally overthrow the Incredible Hulk. Passing game consistency will be key to prevent eight-man fronts for McCoy. My confidence isn't high.
Goal-Line Marginality. Television screens were verbally abused by McCoy owners last season, and for good reason. The rusher was often pulled in favor of Chris Polk and even diminutive Darren Sproles in goal-line situations. Chip will be Chip. He carried the ball 11 times inside the 5-yard line, scoring just three TDs. In his career, he's crossed the chalk an uneventful 36.5 percent of the time from that distance. Wretched. Even Lamar Miller, whose between-the-20s label applies, boasts a higher success rate (36.8 percent).
Reasons why McCoy is worth a Round 1 pick even in 10-team leagues:
Cranked Volume. Make no mistake, McCoy is poised to pull a pallet full of bricks in short order. Because of Buffalo's anticipated vertical inadequacies and staunch defense, Ryan will ride his lead horse early and often. During his six seasons in the Big Apple, the conservative head coach called "run" 49.2 percent of the time. With 2011 the exception, the Jets ranked inside the top-six each season in total rushing attempts lugging the rock 32.1 times per game. Meanwhile, Roman's San Francisco teams ranked 3, 7, 3 and 9 in rush attempts from 2011-2014.
To alleviate pressure on their crap quarterbacks, Ryan and Roman will give McCoy every opportunity to soften overloaded fronts. In light of the environment, it's conceivable he'll best his 314 career benchmark in carries by some 20-30 totes. Assuming that's the case, McCoy, even if he compiled 3.5 yards per carry, would eclipse 1100 yards with relative ease, a plausible outcome. Keep in mind Fred Jackson, McCoy's primary competition, once explored New York rivers with Henry Hudson. The 34-year-old has been around a long time, which is why Lynn wants the graybeard's 2014 snap count (548) sliced in half. Jackson, Dixon and Bryce Brown may only wrest a combined 8-12 total touches per game from McCoy leaving plenty of meat on the bone, possibly some 20-25 carries.
Bills' Defense. Ryan has a fetish for fine pedicures staunch defenses. Over the past 10 years, his defenses, in Baltimore and New York, finished with an average NFL rank of 4.8 in yards allowed. Though Buffalo dealt premier linebacker Kiko Alonso to acquire McCoy, it remains flush with tackling talent. Last year, Mario Williams and Co. were the sixth-most effective defense in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Some bumps transitioning from a base 4-3 back to a 3-4 should be expected, but Ryan is a defensive genius who typically maximizes performance in the area. If his teachings take hold, the Bills are sure to rank near the top in points surrendered. That unfolds and McCoy will be leaned on heavily operating as clock milker.
Fresh Air. At 27 and still in the midst of his prime, McCoy is just one season removed from leading the NFL in rush yards (1,607) and yards from scrimmage (2,146). Granted it was with a more explosive Eagles offense, but out from under Chip Kelly's control, a coach McCoy believes is pro football's Donald Sterling, the RB is motivated to prove last year's downturn was a fluke. Provided he and Rex get along swimmingly, a rebound to the position's top-five, in the minds of the RB's supporters, is inevitable.
Fearless Forecast: Volume always talks in fantasy no matter how inefficient the carries. If McCoy (13.4 Yahoo ADP, RB8) stays healthy, he could, in carry terms, be the DeMarco Murray of 2015. Still, the red flags are numerous and unavoidable. He's missed only six games in six seasons, but the increased stress on a body already with 1,808 touches on the odometer enhances injury risk. That accompanied with the high probability of stacked fronts, sparse touchdowns and underuse in the pass game arrow to disappointment. There are also questions whether he's a proper fit for the system. McCoy was a zone runner in Philly. Buffalo will feature a power scheme. With all that in mind, give me cheaper options Arian Foster (16.7 ADP), Jeremy Hill (19.4) or C.J. Anderson (21.7), despite their own downsides, over him.
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