NFL Over/Under: Will Cooper leave investors in the Black?
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing rookie over/unders for the upcoming season.
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Expected Oakland targets hog, Amari Cooper, receptions in his first year wearing Silver and Black 74.5.
Dalton – OVER. Cooper's set up as the clear No. 1 option in Oakland looks nice, and he's by all accounts polished and NFL ready. So I'm going over, but Derek Carr got just 5.5 YPA last year, so let's temper expectations here.
Scott – UNDER. I loved Cooper at Alabama, but Oakland is where passing games go to die. I'd like Derek Carr to make it, too; he says and does all the right things outside the lines. I'm just not sure he has the right stuff on the field.
Andy – OVER, assuming a full, healthy season. Cooper is pretty much as NFL-ready as a receiver can get, and I fully expect him to see 135-145 targets in his first season. Twenty wideouts exceeded this total last year, including a pair of rookies, so the number isn't crazy-high.
Todd Gurley, recovering smoothly from last year's ACL injury but still a possible candidate to open the season on the PUP list, rushing yards with the Rams 799.5.
Andy – OVER. As far as Gurley's recovery goes, the next piece of bad news will be the first. This kid is a ridiculously talented runner, possibly the best draft prospect at his position since Peterson. Tre Mason rushed for 765 yards over 12 games as a rookie for the Rams, and Gurley is in a different tier entirely. I'll gladly be the drafter who pays the fourth or fifth-round price.
Brad – OVER. News out of Rams HQ suggests Gurley is progressing well, however, Jeff Fisher maintains the team will institute a conservative approach. Still, even if he misses the first six games of the regular season, I fully expect he'll be unleashed Week 7 against Cleveland. Given Gurley's almost superhuman makeup, he could easily average 80-plus rush yards over the Rams' final 10 contests. He's fair game from Round 4 on in 12-team drafts.
Scott – UNDER. I know all the early news is positive, but that's how teams spin injury-returnees. Everyone is on the fast track. Everyone is a quick healer. And you know how nonsensical the Rams tend to be with their offensive personnel at times.
Former Badger Melvin Gordon, who will attempt to overcome the stigma attached to former Wisconsin backs, total touchdowns this fall with San Diego 6.5.
Andy – OVER, probably by two or three (or more). He'll be the Bolts' featured back immediately, and the this team's offense isn't exactly inept. Gordon is set up for a 1,000-yard debut season, with 8-10 spikes.
Brad – OVER. By a nose hair. Branden Oliver and Danny Woodhead will be rotated in, likely supplanting the rookie on third/pass downs. Still, Gordon should be the early-down workhorse behind a retooled offensive line, netting some 15-17 touches per game. His explosiveness, deceptive power and plus vision are reminiscent of Jamaal Charles. Off a college career in which he averaged an all-time 7.79 yards per carry, he has strong odds of breaking a few long scores. Mark me down for seven total TDs this year.
Brandon – UNDER, by a half. I'll say he finishes with a total of six touchdowns. San Diego has finished with six rushing TDs or less as a team in two of the past four seasons. And the Chargers, according to ProFootballFocus, graded out as the second-worst run blocking team in the league. Add to that the fact that Philip Rivers loves to utilize Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates in the red zone and I just don't think the end zone will be fertile grounds for Gordon in Year 1.
Fill in the Blank. In his inaugural campaign with the Bucs, Jameis Winston finishes with _______ passing yards, a ______ TD:INT split and _______ rank among fantasy quarterbacks in per game average.
Brad – 4,036 passing yards, 22:20 TD:INT, No. 21
Brandon – 3,700 passing yards, 22:19 TD-to-INT ratio, No. 23
Dalton – 3,900 passing yards, 23:21 TD:INT, No. 24
West Virginia product Kevin White, who should slide in opposite Alshon Jeffery as Chicago's No. 2, receiving yards this year with Da Bears 899.5.
Brandon – OVER. White's my top choice among rookie wide receivers. I think he has 1,000-yard, 8-10 TD upside in his inaugural campaign. Four rookies topped this yardage O/U mark last season, and three of them also scored at least eight times, so don't think that it's far-fetched for the freakishly athletic White to follow suit.
Dalton – OVER. It's not going to be by much, but I'll pedict around 950 receiving yards and six scores for White.
Scott – OVER. Here's one case where I believe the hype, endorse the hype, jump into the hype. Give him 970 yards and a handful of touchdowns.
Already considered the 1A back in a higly productive Atlanta offense, Tevin Coleman final fantasy rank among running backs 24.5 (In other words, will he finish inside (UNDER) or outside (OVER) the RB top-24?).
Dalton – UNDER. The safer bet here is over, but I would absolutely bet on Coleman's upside here. Based on his setup, I have him as my RB22 right now, so I have to say he'll be around a top-20 fantasy RB this season.
Scott – OVER. I don't like the offensive line, and there's still a strong passing infrastructure.
Andy – UNDER, barely. Atlanta has ranked at or near the bottom of the NFL in rushing in each of the past three seasons, so we're not talking about a high-yield ground game. I'm forecasting a bunch of 65-yard weeks, with an occasional rushing score. By the end of the year, it will make the rookie a top-25 back, if not a fantasy star.
Marcus Mariota, who wound up in Tennessee despite Chip Kelly's offer of his own appendages, combined passing/rushing yards with the Titans this season 3,825.5.
Scott – UNDER, because I don't see how he starts the full season. I suspect the baton won't be passed until October or so. The Titans are in no hurry.
Andy – I wouldn't actually bet this in Vegas (or anywhere else), because it seems like the right number for Mariota, assuming a full season. He has a huge developmental year ahead, so forecasting more than, say, 3,300-3,500 passing yards seems silly. It's easy to imagine him gaining 400-550 on the ground, however. For fantasy purposes, I view him as a bye-week coverage option, not a player you'll need to own for the full season.
Brad – UNDER. When the matchup warrants, Mariota should be occasionally useful for fantasy purposes. He's a heady quarterback who is very comfortable working outside the pocket whether with his arm or legs. Still, the cupboard is relatively bare in Nashville. Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker are reliable underneath weapons and Dorial Green-Beckham has tremendous upside, but the remaining arsenal is bland. Assuming he fends off Zach Mettenberger in camp and starts Week 1, he'll be close to the proposed number, but I foresee roughly 3,300 pass and 400 rush yards this year.
Rank 'em. List the follow wide receivers in expected order of finish in fantasy points per game: Jaelen Strong, Dorial Green-Beckham, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman.
Andy – Agholor, Parker ... Strong ... ... Perriman, DGB.
Brad – Agholor ... Strong, Parker ... Perriman, DGB
Brandon – Agholor (the only that I think ends up mattering for fantasy purposes), Perriman, Strong, Parker, DGB
T.J. Yeldon, hoping to carve an Eddie Lacy, not Trent Richardson, path, total touches this fall with the Jags 259.5.
Brad – UNDER. "Workhorse." "Three-Down back." "Next stud." These are all descriptions Jacksonville coaches and some fantasy pundits have attached to the 'Bama back. Sound familiar? Many of us, including yours truly, said the same about Toby Gerhart last year. I refuse to take the bait again. The Jags are building a winner, but the defense, already sans No. 1 pick Dante Fowler, will limit ground opportunities once again. Specific to Yeldon's case, so will Denard Robinson. The rookie should lead the Jags backfield in touches, but don't bank on a monstrous workload or RB2-level season.
Brandon – UNDER. Sorry, but I think Yeldon is a ham-and-egger - a decent RB, but nothing special. I'd expect Denard Robinson to have a place in the backfield equation, and the current plan is for Toby Gerhart to move into a Mike Tolbert-esque role. Add it all up and I'll wager that Yeldon finishes under 250 total touches.
Dalton – OVER. I rank Yeldon as my No. 14 RB right now. It's not ideal playing for Jacksonville, but Yeldon is good and should be given every opportunity to be the team's workhorse. He should be drafted within the first three rounds.
Versatile youngster Ameer Abdullah, who is likely to take on a Giovani Bernard-like role with the Detroit Lions, receptions this season 44.5.
Brandon – OVER. The Lions have ranked top five in the league in RB receptions, averaging roughly 109 catches in that span. I expect the dynamic Abdullah to ascend fairly quickly to a place of prominence in the Lions backfield and, if that's the case, he should have ample opportunity to catch the number of passes required here for the over.
Dalton – UNDER. I don't want to predict 45 receptions, but I actually really like Abdulah this year and expect him to immediately become Detroit's most valuable back. He's the No. 21 fantasy RB on my draft board.
Scott – OVER. Give the Lions credit, they realized that Reggie Bush wasn't the answer (see ya, Reggie), and they also got sick of the plodding overrated mass that is Joique Bell. Abdullah will have a significant role from the opening snap. Versatile in the D.
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