PBA Philippine Cup: rating the teams
On Wednesday, the PBA held a press conference at the Diamond Hotel in Manila, where PBA brass and league-related personalities met and discussed what will be in store for the 38th Season of Asia's first play-for-pay league. Opening day of the First Conference, the Philippine Cup, formerly known as the All-Filipino Conference, is on Sunday, 30 September 2012, where the teams will parade into the Araneta Coliseum with their beautiful muses, and a lone game between Barangay Ginebra San Miguel and the Global Port Batang Pier will be played.
While teams are filled with immense talent and lineups are more evenly matched than in some past seasons, such that any team can beat another on a given day, there are still those who, at least on paper, seem to be more formidable than others. The PBA released the rosters of each team for the Philippine Cup and, based on the said rosters, let's try to analyze how the teams will stack up in the initial offering of the season.
CLEAR TITLE CONTENDERS
The Talk 'N Text Tropang Texters are the defending Philippine Cup champions. Their lineup has not changed from last year's. The significant change, though, is at the helm where Norman Black, who is listed for now as a Consultant while finishing Ateneo's probably fifth straight championship run in the UAAP, takes over from National Coach Chot Reyes. Black has been in the business for a long time and, despite having his own style, has seen the team prosper under Reyes' watch and will surely maintain much of what has made TNT a probable champion every conference. Nash Racela will hold the fort until Black finishes his UAAP business.
The lineup is a virtual All-Star cast, and the players play both ends of the floor. Firepower is never lacking as Jimmy Alapag, Jayson Castro, Jared Dillinger, Ranidel de Ocampo, Ryan Reyes, Larry Fonacier, Harvey Carey, Ali Peek, and Kelly Williams can always deliver. After some rest and time to recuperate from last season's injury woes, the Texters should be ready and willing to defend their crown.
Petron Blaze is coming off a poor campaign, considering the talent it has. For some reason, the personalities on the team did not make it work, could not come together, and coughed up too many important opportunities to win a crown last season. The Boosters were up 3-1 against TNT in the semifinals of last year's Philippine Cup, but managed to lose three straight, and the series, in what was one of the closest series in PBA history. Neither team won by more than four points in any game.
But, again, we must judge a team this preseason based on potential, and Petron has just as much as TNT. The lineup, already formidable, got even stronger with two of the first three picks in the last Rookie Draft, giant Junmar Fajardo and big guard Alex Mallari. The mainstays are all still there: Alex Cabagnot (the most clutch in the endgame) and Denok Miranda at the point, Chris Lutz, Marcio Lassiter (who is still recuperating from injury but will play soon), Joseph Yeo, and Jojo Duncil as big guards, and Arwind Santos, Jay Washington, Dorian Peña, and Danny Ildefonso up front. Chico Lanete helps at guard. If these guys click under new coach and franchise legend Olsen Racela, they should be the number one challenger.
The San Mig Coffee Mixers (formerly the B-Meg Llamados) can match up with any team in the league. The locals, as a whole, need to show they can play every night at a high level of intensity and physicality, something lacking in their third conference runner-up finish last season. Losing Josh Urbizondo to Barako Bull for a draft pick will definitely hurt. He was a spitfire point guard, fearless and relentless. Jonas Villanueva and Mark Barroca need to match his intensity and resolve to maintain stability at the position. Pick-up Chris Pacana should help here.
James Yap remains the anchor for the Mixers, but Marc Pingris has to continue exhibiting his frontline force on both ends, and probably needs to score more. Frontline production suffered against bigger opponents so somebody must step up offensively. Tim Cone will welcome the return of Joe Devance soon since he can score. JC Intal, also recuperating from an injury, will also be factor. Peter June Simon remains a creator and second option on offense to Yap. Cone is also hoping rookie Aldrech Ramos can shoot accurately and that Yancy de Ocampo continues his strong play last conference.
Rain or Shine is a contender. If the Elasto Painters can continue to play team ball like they did in their first-ever championship run in last season's Governors' Cup, they can dominate even without hulking import Jamelle Cornley. Of course Big Beau Belga, JR Quiñahan, Ronnie Matias, Jervy Cruz, and even Gabe Norwood, have to be factors inside the paint, for the team to be successful.
The potent perimeter players, Rookie of the Year winner Paul Lee, Most Improved Player Jeff Chan, Ryan Araña, Jireh Ibañes, and even TY Tang, need to keep doing what they did late last season. Chris Tiu adds an extremely smart floor general with an above average outside shot. The backcourt got significantly better with his arrival. The Gilas Pilipinas stints of Norwood and Chan will be invaluable in Rain or Shine's continued improvement. This team can be among the league "big boys" now. We shall see if they can continue the upward climb.
After the four teams aforementioned, it's practically a free-for-all.
THE SECOND TIER
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel always seems to be fighting for survival. These guys approach every game as though it may be their last and, usually, battle until the end. LA Tenorio gives Mark Caguioa a crunch-time running mate like he's never had before. The knock on this current roster, though, is that it's too guard-heavy. Jayjay Helterbrand is raring to go after several stints on the injured list, and Mike Cortez is as reliable a back-up guard as any team can have. Willie Wilson, at times, is the best role player out there. If the guards are the team's strength, then Coach Tanquincen will squeeze as much as he can out of them.
Up front, though, is where the Barangay needs to step it up. Kerby Raymundo was not himself last season. He should've settled in by now and has to become the consistent scorer he was in the past. Rudy Hatfield will always provide energy and hustle, and Billy Mamaril can play quality minutes. Can Rico Maierhofer be a contributor? Dylan Ababou and Allein Maliksi have shown they can play in this league, but they have to be more consistent. Rookies Chris Ellis and Keith Jensen will get playing time for sure, as the coaching staff tries to figure out who the frontline mainstays really are. Consider the early part of the conference an adjustment period. How quickly the team adjusts is the key.
The Barako Bull Energy Colas have a good lineup. Only some of last year's "Manong Brigade" remains, but new (not necessarily young) pick-ups solidified the roster. Without Willie Miller, there does not seem to be a clear go-to guy; thus, somebody has to come forward and fit the role. Maybe Danny Seigle is up for the challenge, since he has done it before with San Miguel. Sean Anthony, picked up this offseason, will be a vital cog in the Barako machine, moving forward from role player to main orchestrator in a "point-forward" type of role. The frontline also has steady and strong Doug Kramer, burly Enrico Villanueva, tough Mick Pennisi, and versatile rookie Dave Marcelo.
Josh Urbizondo is a welcome addition in the guard lineup of Coach Junel Baculi, with steady Celino Cruz sharing point guard duties. Urbiztondo's offensive responsibilities increase with this team. Ronald Tubid, Leo Najorda, and come-backing Roger Yap, will help in the perimeter and on defense.
The Alaska Aces lost LA Tenorio, but got two backcourt stalwarts in JV Casio and Dondon Hontiveros, who provide dangerous outside shooting and leadership on and off the court. Surprise package Raphy Reyes is expected to be a factor immediately. Cyrus Baguio and Tony dela Cruz need to provide reliable offense for Coach Luigi Trillo, and Gabby Espinas needs to be a factor in the post.
Sonny Thoss at center will always be steady, but Samigue Eman and Paolo Bugia need to help if Thoss is resting. Nic Belasco is the insurance guy up front since he can play all three frontcourt positions and rarely makes mistakes. Second year guy Mac Baracael and veteran Eddie Laure can hit outside shots. Offense should not be a problem for Trillo's team. They do need to buckle down on defense, though, especially up front, where opposing centers will try to get Thoss into foul trouble and dare the other Alaska big guys to ably patrol the middle. Calvin Abueva comes on board after the NCAA season ends. He will add several new dimensions to the Aces' attack. They will surely improve when he arrives.
A CHANCE TO SURPRISE
The Meralco Bolts were probably the most inconsistent team last season. At times, they looked great, but at others, they could not produce when needed. The loss of Asi Taulava is big (pun intended). Nobody on this current roster can do what Asi did. Jay-R Reyes will probably get the call at center and while he is not the same as Taulava, he is talented and determined. He just needs to be able to do it for the entire game. He hardly played for Gilas Pilipinas, but I'm sure he learned so much and will showcase his knowledge immediately. Reynel Hugnatan will provide some muscle in the paint, as should rookies Kelly Nabong and Cliff Hodge. The frontline, however, severely thins out after that.
Chris Ross is a premiere point guard. Few are better at dictating tempo and knowing when to shoot. Offseason pickup Ronjay Buenafe provides scoring and creating. Coach Ryan Gregorio is hoping Sunday Salvacion finds his shooting touch from beyond the arc. Once again, though, the question is how Sol Mercado and Mark Cardona can be effective together. They need to feed off each other, and Sol showed in his Gilas stint that he can be a creator for his teammates. Cardona should benefit from that. Paul Artadi and Gilbert Bulawan will get their minutes as backups.
The "new" team, Global Port Batang Pier, actually made the Finals in last year's Philippine Cup as Powerade, losing in six games to TNT. But this is a different team in many aspects. Gary David is the main man of course, and he has Willie Miller by his side. They might defer to each other early, and they need to learn how to work together. Miller needs to be more of a distributor on this team and let Gary be the first option. Coach Glenn Capacio will also need to adjust to the pro league. Rookie Vic Manuel will help immediately, but gone from that Finals run last year are Marcio Lassiter, Sean Anthony, JV Casio and Doug Kramer. This is just not the same team.
Strong rookie AJ Mandani will help out in the backcourt, and Rudy Lingganay and Marvin Cruz (yes, the former UP Maroon) will also be there. Josh Vanlandingham will provide outside shooting and steady play from his spot, as should Rey Guevarra. The frontline will be challenged. Rommel Adducul, Rabeh Al-Hussaini, Jondan Salvador and rookie Jason Deutchman have to prove that they can compete and intimidate.
Coach Franz Pumaren has a practically new team at the Air 21 Express camp. John Wilson, Nonoy Baclao, Niño Canaleta, Rob Reyes and rookies Yousif Taha and Simon Atkins join the team through trades and the Draft. Reyes and Baclao provide defense and rebounding, while Canaleta will have the green light to shoot, and Wilson will play both ends for Pumaren. Taha adds size up front and is an upgrade over Magi Sison. Atkins will be a deep guard behind Eric Salamat and Wynne Arboleda.
James Sena, Renren Ritualo, Bitoy Omolon, Mark Isip, and Ogie Menor are the holdovers from last season. Sena will get heavy minutes at forward, along with the undersized Isip and Omolon inside. Menor bring toughness and, if he can control his emotions, the ability to create off the dribble. Renren is still a threat to shoot the lights at the coliseum. He just needs to do it often. The thing with this lineup is that it got older and more experienced, but I'm not sure if it is much better. Air 21 should be able to compete for the entire game now, with veterans that know what to do. However, since there was a major revamp, getting them to play together will be Pumaren's main challenge. They'll win more games than last season, but will struggle to rise in the standings.
I'm excited for the season to start. Kampihan na!
You can follow Charlie Cuna on Twitter @Charlie C.
