What to watch for in Thursday's NBA Playoffs Game 6s
We've got a pair of Game 6s on tap for Thursday, with one stumbling favorite looking to close out on the road and another trying to bounce back and force a Game 7 at home. Here's a look ahead at what to keep an eye on during this evening's action.
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Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 p.m. ET — Bulls lead, 3-2
Can Michael Carter-Williams keep getting into the paint, and can Milwaukee keep stopping Chicago's guards when they do? The dual storylines in the Bucks' impressive Game 5 win were MCW finding consistent success attacking the Bulls off the bounce, and Milwaukee's array of impossibly long-armed defenders preventing Chicago's penetrating guards from converting looks at the tin. Both must continue on Thursday if Milwaukee's to take this thing the distance.
Through the series' first four games, Carter-Williams had looked largely as advertised by those who didn't much care for the trade-deadline deal that imported him while shipping out top scorer Brandon Knight, and who liked the offensive decline that followed the move (from a middling 102.1 points per 100 possessions all the way down to 97.5 points-per-100) even less. The former Rookie of the Year was shooting just 38.6 percent from the floor and only 40 percent on attempts directly at the rim, struggling to both get into the lane and make something good happen once he got there.
That flipped in Game 5, as MCW repeatedly pressed the issue off the dribble, taking advantage of lacking on-ball defense (mostly by Derrick Rose) by pushing off high and side pick-and-rolls. When Carter-Williams got close to the basket near the middle of the floor, he used his height and length advantage to raise right up over Rose for clean looks. When the Bulls were able to effectively send him baseline off the screen, he showed poise, taking a beat, slowing his dribble and waiting for angles to open up before making quick lateral moves along the barrier toward the rim.
He was confident, determined and effective, shooting 10-for-11 in the paint and 6-for-7 inside the restricted area. The attention his dribble penetration drew also opened up passing lanes for kickouts to open shooters like Khris Middleton and O.J. Mayo or lurking drop-off targets like John Henson. He was able to bend and puncture Chicago's coverage by beating the first defender, forcing help to shade his way, and using his length and court vision to complete the job.
Milwaukee scored 26 points on 16 Carter-Williams drives in Game 5, according to NBA.com's SportVU player tracking technology, and MCW himself finished with a series-high 22 points on 10-for-15 shooting, nine assists against four turnovers, eight rebounds, three blocks and a steal in 38 minutes. For one game, at least, Carter-Williams' inability to knock down perimeter jumpers didn't hinder his ability to manipulate the Bulls' defense. Jason Kidd will hope his new protégé can make it two in a row on Thursday.
While Carter-Williams was living the dream in Game 4, Rose and Jimmy Butler were neck-deep in a nightmare.
The Bulls' starry backcourt combined to shoot just 10-for-31 from the field in Game 5, and only 4-for-24 in the paint. The common thread in the struggles that they (and Chicago as a whole) faced? The seemingly endless wingspan of power forward/center John Henson and positionless wonder Giannis Antetokounmpo:
Length & rim protection of @Bucks was big in Gm4. Bulls shot just 5/17 at the rim when defended by Henson, 3/10 when defended by Giannis
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) April 28, 2015
What little success Rose and Butler had to speak of on the interior tended to come when catching the ball on the move toward the middle of the floor after rubbing their defenders off weak-side off-ball screens. With enough spacing and proper execution, those sorts of actions can give them a bit of breathing room from the long arms of Carter-Williams and Antetokounmpo, rather than asking them to create everything off the dribble with an enveloping defender directly in front of them.
They'd still have to deal with the likes of Henson or Zaza Pachulia at the basket, but putting them in the center of the floor in position to attack with a head of steam — sort of like generating a fast-break opportunity in a half-court setting — could result in higher-percentage looks off penetration, which could in turn help loosen up the Milwaukee perimeter defense and open up passing lanes to open shooters. That'd be a big boost for Chicago, who finished just 4-for-22 from 3-point land on Monday, and must improve on that dreadful shot-making to avoid being pushed to a do-or-die Game 7 back at United Center.
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Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 p.m. ET — Spurs lead, 3-2
Can Blake Griffin bounce back without burning out? Through three quarters of Game 5, Griffin had looked dominant against the Spurs, scoring 28 points on 9-for-16 shooting, grabbing nine rebounds, dishing four assists, swiping three steals and blocking one shot with two turnovers in 31 minutes, 19 seconds of floor time. In the fourth quarter, he broke down, scoring just two points on 1-for-9 shooting and committing three turnovers in 10 minutes, nine seconds of work as the Clippers dropped a heartbreaking 111-107 decision that put them on the brink of elimination.
An awful lot of credit for Griffin's late-game struggles should go to Tim Duncan, who took over primary defensive duty on him in the second half and was remarkably effective in quieting down the high-flying All-Star. According to SportVU, while Griffin scored 13 points on Duncan, he did so on 4-for-11 shooting, with Dunca committing just one foul on Blake, stealing the ball from him twice and logging a critical block in the final minute:
Griffin also could've been feeling less than 100 percent after hitting the deck hard on a late-third-quarter foul from Spurs guard Danny Green:
But we also have to factor in perhaps the most important number of those "through three quarters" stats — the 31:19, a full minute and eight seconds more than any Spur had logged to that point (Kawhi Leonard, 30:11).
Blake had gotten less than five minutes of rest by the time the fourth kicked off, and as Michael Pina of Sports on Earth notes, pretty much every second Griffin logs on the court is high-intensity and high-leverage:
The Clippers are exceptionally aggressive on defense. Their bigs (Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Glen Davis) are required to fly around on pick-and-rolls, hedging and trapping smaller, quicker players over 20 feet from the basket. [...] He's constantly moving, flashing, recovering, sprinting, jumping and pressing. When his man tries to set up action on the perimeter, be it orchestrating offense from the high post or setting up a hand-off action, Griffin's inside his jersey.
The style is taxing. Then throw in the opponent. San Antonio constantly moves the ball. It's always hunting for an open shot, working the possession until a crack in L.A.'s pressure-happy scheme presents itself. [...]
In the entire NBA, only one player has logged more playoff minutes this month. Only one player has attempted more shots. Only one player has grabbed more rebounds. Only three players have tallied more assists (seriously, that's incredible). Only five players have scored more points. Nobody has more double-doubles than Griffin's five, and he owns the only triple-double.
According to SportVU, Griffin's odometer has increased by 13.3 miles since the postseason tipped off, a figure bested by only five other players. His 104.4 touches per game are only lower than Derrick Rose and LeBron James.
We know why, of course. The Clippers bench includes one big man whom Doc Rivers trusts (Glen "Big Baby" Davis) and two (Spencer Hawes and Ekpe Udoh) to whom he has granted a combined 15 minutes in this series. The Clippers bench includes two backup ball-handlers (Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers) who tend to shoot first, second and third, and ask questions only after getting off a couple more quick shots, leaving L.A. in dire need of a non-CP3 playmaker.
The Clippers have scored 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when Griffin's been off the floor in this series. They have allowed 38.4 more points-per-100 when he's been off the floor in this series, per NBA.com's stat tool. They are thin everywhere, but especially in the areas where Griffin's most important, so he just keeps playing. The cumulative effect as the game goes on, however, has been clear and drastic.
Griffin's shooting 19 percent in the fourth quarter in this series. He seems to lack lift and arc on the jumpers for which he appears to be settling at least in part because the explosiveness that's allowed him to rampage to the basket and soar for dunks earlier in the proceedings is gone. (He's also attempted just five free throws in 40 fourth-quarter minutes, and made only one of them.)
The 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio he's compiled through the first three quarters in this series has been cut in half (eight assists, five TOs, 1.6-to-1) in the fourth. The defensive activity — the flying around, the hard contests, the flash-and-recover work — has slowed down.
It's hard to blame Griffin for fading down the stretch when so much is asked of him in all the minutes that lead up to it. But with San Antonio needing just one more win to put yet another premature end to a Clippers season, they'll need him to find some extra reserve to push past the finish line and stave off elimination ... because it doesn't seem likely that Doc's going to find an extra reserve on the ill-fated bench he put together this summer.
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Dan Devine is an editor for Ball Don't Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at devine@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
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