Who will take the last NCAA Final Four ticket?
Only the fourth and final slot remains unclaimed in the NCAA's Final Four that will take place on Saturday. Already in the semis are defending champion San Beda at first place, San Sebastian at second, and Letran at third. Both the Red Lions and Golden Stags enjoy a twice-to-beat advantage in the semis.
The Knights and Stags will battle it out for the right to play in the championship. But the team that the Lions will face is yet to be determined in the knockout game tomorrow between Jose Rizal and Perpetual Help. The sudden death is set at 6:00PM at the San Juan Arena.
Both the Heavy Bombers and Altas finished the elims with a 10-8 card. They split their encounters this season, with JRU winning in the first round, 64-59, and UPHSD prevailing in the second, 88-72.
JRU is eager to make its seventh consecutive trip to the Final Four. But since figuring in the 2008 Finals versus San Beda, the Bombers have not gotten past the semis. Still, Coach Vergel Meneses hopes to take another crack at the Lions on Saturday in the semis.
On the other hand, the Altas have not returned to the semis since their bridesmaid finish in 2004. Under former coach and now Deputy Commissioner Bai Cristobal, Perpetual Help lost 0-2 in the 2004 championship to former member Philippine Christian University. The Las Pinas-based squad was then led by the sweet-shooting Noy Javier, Fritz Bauzon, Khiel Misa, Bobby Barnson and Dean Apor.
But now that multi-titled coach Aric Del Rosario is at the helm of the team, there is much optimism in the Perpetual Help community that the school will finally end its semis drought.
Let's review the head-to-head numbers.
The Altas are currently third in scoring with a 72.1 per game clip, behind San Sebastian and Emilio Aguinaldo. The Bombers are at sixth place but not too far behind UPHSD with a 70.2 points average. Defensively, Perpetual and JRU are fifth and sixth respectively. The Altas allow their opponents an average of 69.7 points while the Bombers give up 72 points per game.
But JRU shoots better on the floor with a 41% total field goals compared to Perpetual's 36.4%.
In the battle of the boards, the Altas are third best in the league with 47.3 caroms per game while the Bombers are second to the last with just 41. Both teams collect over 15 assists and over three blocks per game.
Perpetual is the NCAA's finest in steals, averaging 7.4 per game.
The chink in the Bombers' armor is their league-worst 23.3 turnovers per game. The Altas have just 17.9 errors per outing.
What's interesting to see in this match-up is the probable shooting contest between two of the league's best snipers. Perpetual's prolific gunner Jet Vidal has been sensational the entire season, with norms of 17.8 markers, 3.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals. He has unloaded the most treys this season in the NCAA with a total of 50. In crunch time, Jet-sanity is expected to take the big shots for the Altas. But not to be outdone is JRU's deadly sniper Nate Matute, who averages 14.7 points per game and a respectable 31% shooting clip from beyond the arc. He has uncorked 41 triples in the season so far. Both Vidal and Matute are expected to carry the scoring cudgels for their respective squads in this do-or-die match.
But Coach Aric enjoys more bench support, having a deeper roster this season. Earl Thompson, the prime candidate for the Most Improved Player award, has had a magical year. He posted numbers of 12.2 points, 6.5 boards, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals and one block per game. Defensively, he has also shone for the Altas. George Allen has also stepped up his game in the second round, hitting clutch baskets down the stretch. Although averaging just 7.7 markers, he can be an able back up for Vidal and Thompson. Nigerian Ariyo Babayemi provides the defensive muscle for the Altas. He has 6.7 boards and 1.6 blocks per outing. Unfortunately, another Nigerian import Nosa Omorogbe is reportedly dropped from UPHSD's roster for a spat with a teammate. He contributes significant numbers of 9.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game.
If the Bombers hope to stay alive, they must get better contribution from the bench. Byron Villarias has been outstanding in the last few games of JRU. He currently gathers 12.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. He also hits 31% from the three-ball. If Matute and Villarias both catch fire, it will be tough to upend the Bombers.
But John Lopez will have his hands full against the bigger Altas. His 11.6 points and 8.3 boards per game might not be sufficient. JRU badly needs an inside game. It will be difficult to survive by merely depending on the outside points.
It's about time that Bombers Alex Almario, Ivan Camasura, Michael Mabulac and Ronnel Carampil come out of their shadows. Only with significant contributions from the bench can JRU have a chance against the Altas.
Perpetual Help will have an edge in tomorrow's knockout encounter. But the Bombers are dangerous with their backs against the wall.
Editor's note: The blogger's views do not represent Yahoo! Southeast Asia's position on the topic or issue being discussed in this post.
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