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NBA Fantasy Basketball: Surprise, surprise in tip off week!

Let's get this out of the way first: I'm Noel Zarate—sports broadcaster for both television and radio, TV executive producer, feature writer, online poker veteran, recording studio entrepreneur, NBA Fantasy Basketball nut. I got started during Darko's rookie year—the 2003-2004 season—through a friend and quickly got hooked. But in poker jargon, I was a "fish" and knew nothing about what I was doing until I won my first title in a Yahoo! Public Rotisserie League and started joining and forming (not necessarily winning) more and more leagues yearly. I've also had a hand in commissionership and the longest running one is now on its 9th year. Fantasy Basketball has been so intertwined with my persona that my online name in poker is "KomishAirms" which is a combination of "Komish" for Commissioner and "Airms"—short for my former radio handle Airman Moreno. But I'm sure you're more interested in what I can bring to the table for your life as online team managers, so let's get that adrenalin re-pumping as "Tip Off" week has now arrived to its riveting climax.

For those of you who've already drafted and are either revelling or reeling from your Week 1 salvos, I'm sure many of you were caught offguard by some unexpected performances by the stalwarts you've pinned your hopes on for this season. Reminder: it's still a very looooong season. So before you start panicking and resorting to add/drop tactics and offering some key players for early overachievers, let's revisit the facts and view Week 1 with a grain of salt.

EARLY SURPRISES:

1. James Harden-SG/SF (HOU): A late second-round pick across the board, many came into the season expecting more of the same from the third wheel of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Guaranteed points (16.8 PPG in 2011-12 season), 3s (1.8/game), FT% (84.6%) and even a steal a game. When the last-minute pre-season blockbuster trade sent "The Beard" to the Rockets many foresaw a bump in production as being almost the only offensive weapon in Houston (alongside the much heralded Jeremy Lin). But not to the tune of 106 points in three games including a 37 point debut which ranks up there with the first games of transferees Moses Malone, Charles Barkley and Tracy McGrady. He followed that up with a 45-point career-high game and completed his Week 1 brilliance with 24 points in an overtime loss to Portland.

What makes Harden's rise to the headlines so spectacular is that many thought it would take the reigning NBA 6th Man of the Year sometime not only to adjust to his new surroundings, but also to life as a starter—something he had only done seven times in his four-year career. Can he continue at this pace? Look at it this way: Harden's back-up is Daequan Cook, his old back-up when he was a back up at OKC. Have you heard about Cook this season? I didn't think so. Only an injury can keep the former Arizona State star from being Lin's favorite target and Kevin McHale's main man.

2. Kyle Lowry-PG (TOR): Speaking of the Houston Rockets, their former alleged starter has so far outdone himself in the Great White North. If there's anyone who could be getting more praise for his Fantasy contributions after Week 1, it's got to be the veteran Kyle Lowry, the NUMBER ONE player through 9-Cats (Nine-Category Fantasy Leagues) so far. There were many doubts as to how Lowry can pick up the pieces after a ho-hum stint with Houston, even if he was coming off career highs in points, rebounds, assists, 3s and FT%. His 37.4 FG% in 32 minutes an outing as Houston's 1-guard has made him slide to a fourth or even fifth round bargain in this year's drafts across the board. Analysts were sceptical on how a change of scenery could revive the seven-year veteran's apparently lacklustre career. Well, Lowry has proven to be the steal of the Fantasy world thus far with norms of 23.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG (yes, over seven rebounds a game for a chunky point guard), 7.0 APG, 3.7 SPG (3rd best in the NBA) and 2.7 3PG. LeBron James, the league's reigning MVP and O-Rank (Yahoo!'s Official Rankings) top man is only averaging 23.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG (yeah, he's an SF/PF), 6.3 APG, 0.7 SPG (boo-hoo), 1.3 3PG. Bron's numbers are not bad at all, but considering the fact that Lowry was a middle draft entity, it just astounds how he can churn out these absurd stats in Week 1 on a team that isn't likely to escape ping-pong balls when all is said and done.This makes him a stud of epic proportions—at least for now. If you have Lowry in your roster (coz I don't), keep him there—at least for Week 2...

3. Anderson Varejao-PF/C (CLE): I don't know if you've ever heard this before, but Brazilian Bush (that also) used to be compared to Detroit's former menace Ben Wallace, not only for the coiffeur, but for the intensity they both bring to the hustle part of the game. Well, there's a distinct difference (OK, there are several): Varejao has slight offensive skills while Big Ben had extremely rare offensive moments. Varejao was another late draft pick in all formats; usually going at the 7th or even 8th rounds. His offensive shortcomings are to blame for his being snubbed in the earlier rounds, even if he is coming off a career-high 10.8 PPG last season, many just regard him as their "UTIL" guy who is a good source of rebounds, steals and FG%. Coming off an injury-riddled 2011-12 campaign didn't help boost his stock one bit as well.

But right off the bat this season, he showed his true worth, gobbling up 23 rebounds (12 ORs, thanks to rookie Dion Waiters "feeling" his way through) in their opener against the Wizards and missing a triple-double by one point and one assist. In the loss against Chicago, he could only produce a fraction of that output, but he resurrected again at Milwaukee, registering 20 points (10/13 FGs), 17 boards and 1 steal in 35 minutes of action. Tyler Zeller is a rookie and won't get much love from Byron Scott the way "Andy" is approaching Wilt Chamberlain-like rebounding stats through three games. So it looks like the 13.7 PPG, 15.0 RPG, 64% FGs and the bonus 3.7 APG could be a familiar line going forward. Fear the Bush.

4. Damian Lillard-PG (POR): By now you already know that only one other player in NBA history has started his rookie campaign with at least 20 points and 7 assists through three games, so I won't even tell you that that was Oscar Robertson. I will tell you that the second is this 6th overall pick out of Weber State who as early as the Summer Leagues has been dropping jaws and sending swamis to proclaim him as their pick for Rookie of the Year. Lillard came into a great situation, to be honest: no point guards on the team. And against second year man Nolan Smith and journeyman Ronnie Price, he was a shoe-in to lead a Trailblazers squad which might have the unique pieces to make a deep playoff run this season. Lillard has meshed well with franchise-face LaMarcus Aldridge, versatile Nicolas Batum and sniper Wesley Matthews who along with swing big J.J. Hickson seem to be operating as a cohesive unit for coach new head coach Terry Stotts. Now how does this translate into NBA Fantasy reality? Lillard is averaging 21.3 PPG while shooting 47.1% FGs, which is pretty decent for a kid who jacks up about 17 shots a game. He's also making 2 3s a game and his norm of 9.0 APG along with his 91% FTs make him the best freshman out there in the young season. For those who took a chance on Lillard as your sixth or seventh round pick, may the basketball gods smile on you and keep this aggressive, gutsy guard healthy.

5. J.J. Redick-SG (ORL): I have the former Blue Devil in two of my eight leagues. These are two of the three leagues where I was not present during the draft due to either prior commitments or senior moments. I was ready to deal him coz I felt I could get stuck with a bench player who would only see action within the 20-25 MPG realm, launch as many bombs as he can in that brief stint and see my overall FG numbers slide. However, I kept him just because the Magic have a new look this season—and I was hoping he would FINALLY start. Well the bad news is he's still a back up, thanks to newly acquired Arron Afflalo and his massive $43 million contract. The good news is new Orlando coach Jacque Vaughn was a former point guard who likes to utilize three guards on the floor a lot. Add to the fact that Hedo Turkoglu got hurt and may miss significant time. Enter Redick, his stroke and his eye popping Fantasy contributions over a mere two games during "Tip Off" week. Redick is an insane 6/8 from distance so far, for 75% 3pts! His 22.5 PPG looks to hold as the Magic continue sticking with this dribble-drive offense that has allowed it to snare its first two assignments of the young season. PF/C Glen Davis is also a beneficiary of this change (and the departure of one Dwight Howard). Look for the Magic to look like the former Mike D'Antoni-era Phoenix Suns throughout the year and for Redick, look for a breakout year not only for him and his team, but for him and the two teams I have him in. Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.

(To be Continued)

Follow Noel on Twitter: @NoelZarate

Editor's note: The blogger's views do not represent Yahoo! Southeast Asia's position on the topic or issue being discussed in this post.

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