Shakey’s V-League Open Finals Preview: The Virtual Coinflip

GAME 1s ON THURSDAY (August 28th at The Arena, San Juan City)

2:00PM (Best-Of-Three series for Bronze) – PLDT Home Telpad vs. Philippine Air Force

3:45PM – Presentation of Individual Awards

4:00PM (Best-Of-Three series for Gold) – Philippine Army vs. Cagayan Valley

Since both defending champions Cagayan Valley and perennial contenders Philippine Army both brought their brooms to their respective semifinal series last Sunday, the league takes a competition day hiatus to gear up for the Finals—which features these two bitter rivals in their first title clash in the league since the inception of the Open Conference in 2011—this gives us time to focus on the match-up at hand between these two proud teams that know each other so well that it could come down to who flinches first. It could be another one of those virtual coinflips.

Head-to-head this year, the Rising Suns have defeated the Lady Troopers four times in their six meetings thus far. I don’t know of any other team that can say that they have a winning record against the mighty three-time Philippine Super Liga (PSL) champions, but that is the truth for Cagayan Valley. The Rising Suns defeated Army (Generika) in the PSL All-Filipino Conference (AFC) prelims (sans eventual MVP Tina Salak), twice in the 2014 Cagayan Friendship Games (CFG) Finals and once during the elimination round of this conference. The only times the Lady Troopers scored victories against their rivals was during the 2014 CFG first round and during this Open’s quarterfinals.

In fact, last year the Rising Suns actually had a 5-2 edge over the Lady Troopers with Army’s two wins both coming in the PSL Grand Prix—prelims and semis (with a lot of help from Japanese libero Yuki Murakoshi and future Thai national pool member Wanitchaya Luangtonglang). Cagayan Valley won against them in the preliminary round of the PSL Invitational (in that classic five-set opening day duel starring now Air Force reserve Jen Manzano who exploded for a career-high 26 points in the rousing win), twice in the 2013 Cagayan Friendship Games and twice in the Shakey’s V-League Open (when they were then reinforced by the “Thainamic Duo” of Kannika Thipachot and Phomla Soraya en route to the “Perfect Season” of 16-0).

This must stink to high heavens for Army Head Coach Rico de Guzman and his charges.

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Army, the inaugural Open queens in 2011, have not made a Shakey’s V-League final since that conquest, while Cagayan Valley has appeared in every gold medal showdown since—in 2012, losing out to Sandugo-San Sebastian (giving legendary Jaroensri Bualee her first Shakey’s V-League title) and, of course, the 2013 season sweep; capped off by their demolition of the veritable all-star composition of Smart-Maynilad (starring two-time league MVP Din-Din Santiago and eventual UAAP MVP Alyssa Valdez).

But despite all the success Cagayan Valley has had over their arch nemesis, Army is still favored to win their second Open crown—at least according to many aficionados.

“Army is stacked from top to bottom,” one sports writer said. “They’re not as tired as they look, and they want to prove that Cagayan (Valley) only won this year’s CFG because they had imports.”

“If everyone can play as determined as (Aiza) Maizo, then Cagayan (Valley) has a chance (to win the championship),” another scribe quipped. “But since I don’t think that’s going to happen, Army has to play really below par for Cagayan (Valley) to win.”

It appears these observers are basing their analysis on the Lady Troopers’ resurgent run in the PSL AFC where, the return of Salak made all the difference (bouncing back from an uncharacteristic 0-2 start)—hence being named league MVP. However, Army has lost thrice in the Open; in the elims to the Rising Suns and in the quarterfinals to Air Force and the Ateneo de Manila University Lady Eagles—all three loses were with Salak in the fold.

One must also take into consideration that Cagayan Valley endured its worst losing streak ever by dropping four straight in the quarterfinals before a Mazio-led demolition of the Air Spikers salvaged an outright spot in the semis, just in the nick of time. When I asked Head Coach Nes Pamilar about this near debacle, he had no clear answer. It was a wicked slump, that’s all it was.

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I also spoke to two-time Finals MVP Rachel Anne Daquis of the Lady Troopers—who along with reigning MVP Jovelyn Gonzaga are seeking to become back-to-back champions after helping the Far Eastern University win its first crown just a few months ago. Daquis said that nothing matters to her but winning her second title with the team she served as a resident guest player in for the past four years after helping snatch the 2011 edition of the championship.

“Kahit hindi wala na akong (individual) awards na makuha, basta mag-champion lang kami,” the 26-year-old Taytay lass exclaimed.

The Lady Troopers have shown a few chinks in their proverbial armor this season, but still look to be in great shape to recapture the Open trophy. Gonzaga is still showcasing the form that won her the MVP trophy last year—if not better. Veterans (and former league MVPs) Mary Jean Balse and Nerissa Bautista have been very consistent, while the acquisition of former FEU libero Tin Agno has been instrumental in improving the Lady Troopers’ floor defenses—formerly the weakest facet of their game.

Cagayan Valley, on the other hand, have actually become stronger in terms of personnel with the renaissance of Rosemarie Vargas (who missed the entire season last year dealing with a debilitating knee injury), the additions of former Philippine National Police scoring leader Janine Marciano, the gutsy setting prowess of Pamilar product Gyzelle Sy and the incredible showing of first-time full-time libero Bang Pineda as well as Maizo, who seems to have discovered the fountain of youth practically overnight. The decline in minutes of skipper Angge Tabaquero has been quite noticeable and if she’s being rested to explode in the finals series, then Pamilar can be considered a coaching genius.

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My conclusion?

This will go the distance. There will be a Game 3.

With Maizo apparently playing even better than when she was in college and Daquis shining like the MVP candidate she is, the support cast of both teams will have to dictate the outcome in this one. Again, to use my old adage: it’s a virtual coinflip. I did predict during a recent interview that Army has the edge. My predictions are controversial at best.

And once again, the Rudy Tomjanovic quote pops up: “Don’t ever under estimate the heart of a champion.”

That happens to be Cagayan Valley in this case.

There must be a reason why these two decorated teams have never figured in the Shakey’s V-League finals until now, and I guess we’ll all witness the fitting climax to what has been an incredible saga between these two intrepid squads.

I’m tasked to do the broadcasting chores for Game 1 and I will be working Game 1 with the one and only Mozzy Ravena. There you go.

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For those who will fortunate enough to be part of history in the making this coming Thursday, come to SJA early. I anticipate a sea of people. I haven’t even touched on the Individual Awards race yet. Maybe I will in a while.

Follow Noel Zarate on Twitter (@NoelZarate) and email sportztackle@yahoo.com