Azkals vs Myanmar preview: All Just a Little Bit of History Repeating

BANGKOK- Rick Olivares and I went to MBK Mall yesterday to look for shirts. We bumped into Dennis Cagara and Paul Mulders. Cagara picked up a pair of tiny flourescent-green boxing gloves for his five-year-old son.

Dennis and his mates would love to deliver a knockout blow to Myanmar on Friday and punch the Azkals' ticket to the semifinals. But they must do so against a tricky opponent that has bedeviled us with difficult matches throughout the years. This last group match is a major banana skin.

In the 2004 Tiger Cup Aris Caslib's Philippine side tormented Myanmar, holding them to a goalless stalemate for 90 minutes. Unfortunately, deep in stoppage time Myanmar punctured Louie Casas' goal line for a dramatic late winner. I remember reading the official website referring to "a lively Philippines' side."

ALSO READ: After stirring win over Vietnam Azkals relish shift in fortunes

Revenge would come three years later in the 2007 AFF Championship. The Philippines started terribly, with two 4-0 defeats to Thailand and Malaysia. Within minutes of the first game, Aly Borromeo blew out his knee and was out for the competition. Malaysia scored a bicycle kick goal in their win.

The last group stage match would be against Myanmar, who had drawn both Thailand and Malaysia. Myanmar must have been full of confidence going into this game. They just needed any win against an eliminated Azkals team and they were through to the next round with 5 points.

Myanmar-Philippines and Thailand-Malaysia were played simultaneously and naturally ESPNStar aired the latter live.

Thailand won, but as that game ended, I distinctly recall commentator Dez Corkhill's words.

"Malaysia are through as well because Myanmar and the Philippines have drawn."

ALSO READ: Azkals 1, Vietnam 0: Postgame thoughts from an epic win

ESPNStar showed the Myanmar-Philippines game right after. The Indochinese laid seige to Casas' goal, badly outshooting us. But the defense held firm.

Late in the game Ariel Zerrudo could have won it from a breakaway but instead of centering it to an open man, he hoofed it into the side netting from an acute angle.

The final whistle blew minutes later, and the Philippines, playing for nothing else but pride, had knocked out heavily favored Myanmar with a 0-0 draw. It remains, to this day, one of my favorite Azkals moments.

Flash-forward to 2010. From the dining tent in the Asian Beach Games in Oman I got some free wifi and followed the match between the Philippines and Myanmar on a very choppy live streaming link. Philippines had just days before stunned Vietnam. Would it be Myanmar's turn to play spoiler?

Not this time. Once again the teams played ninety minutes of goalless Football, and the Azkals collected the point that propelled them into the semifinal series against Indonesia.

And then a year later the teams met again in the Challenge Cup qualifiers in Myanmar. In the second half Yanti Barsales was knocked out cold by a bizarre dropkick to the face from the Burmese keeper in the box. He was sent off, and James Younghusband drilled the ensuing penalty past the reserve stopper for 1-0.

But as they did in 2004, the ten-man home side broke Pinoy hearts with a late free-kick goal that scurried through the wall and past Neil Etheridge. 1-1 final.

This fixture has been dramatic, arduous, and extremely attritional, with only three goals in the last four matches. The Philippines has never beaten Myanmar. Friday would be a good day to start.

The Azkals are without Jerry Lucena, who flew back to Denmark to meet club commitments. In his place Coach Michael Weiss will likely call on Jason DeJong to buttress the defense from the holding midfielder slot. Another option would be Carli De Murga, who has yet to play in this campaign and appears to be fully recovered from his Iliotibial Band injury.

The defense is key. Three members of the back four, Ray Jonsson, Juani Guirado, Rob Gier are in their thirties. This game is the tail end of a grueling week of Football, their third game in seven days. Hopefully they will be fit enough to perform even deep into the second half.

The Philippines coaching staff made two brilliant substitutions on Tuesday, sending in Angel Guirado and Chieffy Caligdong in the second half, then watching them combine for the winner. I wouldn't be surprised if they start on the bench again, though.

Paul Mulders told me yesterday that he was feeling under the weather. Let's hope he has fully recovered by Friday so that he can either pull the strings in the midfield or join Phil Younghusband up top like he did against Thailand.

Phil has yet score in this tournament. Now might be his moment to shine.

ALSO READ: Reactions: Vietnam 0-1 Philippines

It has been a rollercoaster ride for Myanmar in this Suzuki Cup. They started brightly in the first game, coming from behind to draw Vietnam 1-1. But on Tuesday they were steamrolled by a savage Thailand 4-0, with Teerasil Dangda hanging up a hat trick.

Myanmar will rely on the quick and clever Kyi Lin to create in the midfield and supply balls to veteran Yan Paing. Oddly, Myanmar has not selected Kyaw Ko Ko, the brilliant young striker who was sensational in last year's SEA Games for the Myanmar U23 team.

Philippines-Myanmar will take place in the older Supachalasai Stadium while Thailand tangles with Vietnam in Rajamangala. Both games kick off at exactly the same time, around 8 pm local time or 9 pm Philippine time. This is done because if one game is played after the other, teams in the second match, who already know the result of the first, could theoretically arrange a result that favors both squads.

The Philippines proceed to the semifinals if they win this game. If they draw, they go through if Thailand draws or defeats Vietnam.

Should Vietnam upset Thailand and we draw with Myanmar, both the Azkals and Vietnam will be tied at four points. The first tiebreaker is Goal Difference. If we draw with Myanmar and Vietnam wins big over Thailand then we could be in trouble. Fortunately with Thailand playing like a well-oiled machine, that seems unlikely.

If the Azkals lose to Myanmar then it's all over, and we are eliminated no matter what happens in the other game. A possibility? Yes. Right now we are favored against Myanmar, but Football is a funny sport where funny things happen.

I won't be the least bit surprised if the Philippines once again employs a compact 4-5-1 formation. But it will be interesting to see how Michael Weiss' tactics change as news from Rajamangala Stadium inevitably filters in during the match. An early goal from Vietnam might force them into something more attack-minded.

It's time for the Philippines to float like a butterfly, sting like a bee, and make the semifinals for the second Suzuki Cup in a row. History isn't on our side against Myanmar, but momentum is.

* * *

On another note, big shoutout of congratulations to the Philippine Malditas for winning the LA Vikings Cup! The team makes us swell with Pinoy Pride.

In a previous blog post I mentioned that the emergence of the Malditas was because of the work of Dan Palami with the Azkals. Ernie Nierras sent me a note saying that he felt that was not correct since he has been helping the Women's team since 2005.

I erred in my wording and stand corrected. What I meant to say was that the Azkals explosion of 2010 surely helped the cause of the Malditas as well. Apologies if what I wrote belittled the fine work of Mr. Nierras and others to grow the Women's game in the country. That was certainly not my intent.

Watch the Philippines Myanmar match at 9 pm Friday on either AKTV on IBC or ESPNStar. Follow Bob on Twitter @bhobg333.

Editor's note: The blogger's views do not represent Yahoo! Southeast Asia's position on the topic or issue being discussed in this post.

More sports news:

Rondo ejected as Brooklyn beats Boston