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Why Mayweather-Pacquiao II likely won't happen

LAS VEGAS – Once Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao finally put their signatures on a contract, it seemed all but certain their May 2 welterweight title fight at the MGM Grand would be the first of at least two, if not more, bouts between them.

After all, when the fighters are going to take home roughly $300 million between them for a night's work, why stop at just one? There is no rematch clause in the contract, but that was beside the point. The bout was so big and so lucrative and interest seemed so intense, a rematch was almost a fait accompli.

There was only one way, it appeared, that there wouldn't be a rematch: If Mayweather just totally routed Pacquiao.

Otherwise, it just seemed too logical to assume they'd simply fight again. Would you be interested in, oh, Pacquiao-Jessie Vargas after seeing Mayweather-Pacquiao? I didn't think so.

It took more than five years to complete negotiations to make the first fight, but once they had the framework in place, it made sense organizers would be able to make small revisions to the terms, as needed, and for the boxers to fight again.

If Pacquiao were to win and upset Mayweather's quest to end his brilliant career with a perfect record?

Oh, you better believe there'd be a rematch.

If Mayweather were to nip Pacquiao in a close and competitive fight? Again, a rematch makes sense. It would be easy to convince the public that Pacquiao could make adjustments and come back to win a second bout between them. And that would be highly preferable to, oh, Mayweather-Amir Khan or Mayweather-Danny Garcia.

It all made so much sense.

Kenny Bayless (L) was named the official referee for the match between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. (AFP)
Kenny Bayless (L) was named the official referee for the match between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. (AFP)

But that was then, back in February and early March when everyone was wearing rose-colored glasses and basking in the glow of the so-called Fight of the Century being made.

It was before anyone paid attention, or bothered to ask, whether there was a signed contract between the MGM and the promoters of the bout, Mayweather Promotions and Top Rank.

It was before anyone was worried that tickets weren't yet on sale. It was prior to the fear about distribution of fight credentials for the camps, the television networks and sponsors. That was a time when no one thought much about who got rooms where.

At long last, the contract was finalized on Wednesday and the fight will move forward. But after the two sides hashed through the very real problems that plagued this promotion, one thing more than any other became agonizingly obvious:

There's no chance whatsoever that there could possibly be a rematch.

The bitter feelings between the sides are as intense, maybe more, than ever before.

Ever since Mayweather left Top Rank in the middle of the previous decade, there have been hard feelings. All sides have tried to downplay the animosity since the bout with Pacquiao was announced, but that's little more than revisionist history.

HBO's outstanding preview documentary "At Last" did a good job of pointing out the depth of animosity that exists between many parties.

Complicating the possibility of a second or even third fight between the two best boxers of their time is the relationship between the MGM and Top Rank.

As Top Rank was promoting a Pacquiao-Timothy Bradley fight on April 12, 2014, the MGM had banners throughout the casino and on the outside of its building promoting the May 3, 2014, match between Mayweather and Marcos Maidana.

Bob Arum's contentious relationship with Floyd Mayweather's camp made negotiations difficult. (AFP)
Bob Arum's contentious relationship with Floyd Mayweather's camp made negotiations difficult. (AFP)

Arum was irate, and understandably so. But Top Rank was also upset about a large banner of Mayweather on the east side of the MGM that said, "Home of the Champion," and greeted visitors as they arrived at the resort from McCarran International Airport.

It wasn't fight specific, and it had been there for more than a year by the time the Pacquiao-Bradley rematch came around.

But at a news conference, Arum viciously ripped Richard Sturm, the MGM's president of entertainment and sports, for decorating the hotel with Mayweather-Maidana advertisements at the same time Top Rank was trying to sell tickets, closed circuit seats and pay-per-view for Pacquiao-Bradley II.

MGM Resorts Chairman & CEO Jim Murren responded by writing an email to his staff in which he said "your company won't associate with abusive individuals."

The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight is the first Top Rank event at the MGM since Pacquiao-Bradley II. And MGM officials have been cool to the idea of working with Top Rank and made plain their preference to deal with Mayweather Promotions.

Looming behind much of this is, of course, the mystery man of boxing, Al Haymon. Haymon has become a threat to the establishment with his creation of the Premier Boxing Champions, which has brought premium cable-quality bouts back to network television.

An excellent Sports Business Daily piece by Bill King on Monday pointed out that Haymon has raised $425 million from investors to fund the PBC, causing HBO Sports president Ken Hershman to tell King that Haymon's deal could cause "some level of disruption if the money coming into the system is as significant as it appears to be. I don't think you can pretend it won't cause disruption in the marketplace [for TV rights to fights]."

Thus, few promoters are enamored of Haymon, and the ones whose business is directly threatened by what he's doing – Top Rank, Golden Boy and Main Events – are the ones who are the angriest.

Given the level of agita that exists between the parties more than 60 days after the fighters put pen to paper to fight each other, it's impossible to imagine they'll be able to put the anger and intense feelings aside again and come to terms on a rematch.

After this one, there will be less incentive for them to make another fight. The failure for more than five years to make the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight was the dominant story in the industry.

Mayweather Promotions CEO Leonard Ellerbe looks on during an open workout at Floyd Mayweather's gym. (Getty)
Mayweather Promotions CEO Leonard Ellerbe looks on during an open workout at Floyd Mayweather's gym. (Getty)

It made the sport seem bush league when the two best fighters in the business couldn't come together to split what is essentially a winning PowerBall jackpot.

Now that the first fight is made, the legacies of all involved are secured. No matter what happens, Mayweather can't be accused of ducking his biggest rival. Pacquiao is no worse than third in the pound-for-pound rankings, so it's not fair to say that Mayweather is fighting someone on the backside of his career.

Pacquiao is clearly the best available opponent for Mayweather.

It would have been devastating to Arum's legacy if the fight wasn't finalized. Arum's career has largely been about putting together the biggest and seemingly most difficult fights to make, and for almost a half-century, he's had few peers. But had Mayweather-Pacquiao not happened, that would have been on his epitaph. It would have been discussed for years and it would have sullied his reputation.

Now, all that is in the past. Both sides will have made astounding amounts of money for this one night. The fight is expected to gross $400 million. Pay-per-view sales are expected to hit record levels and perhaps surpass three million for the first time. Mayweather could make as much as $200 million for the night, while Pacquiao will gross more than $100 million.

Outside of money (and of course money is usually the greatest incentive of all), there aren't a lot of incentives for the fight's organizers to go back to the table and try to have them do it again.

So my advice is this: Enjoy the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight on May 2. Because as you're seeing them in the same ring for the first time, understand it will also likely be the last time.

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